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NGrossman81's profile
Nicholas Grossman
Nicholas Grossman
Nicholas Grossman
@NGrossman81

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Nicholas Grossman

@NGrossman81

International Relations prof at U. Illinois. Senior Editor @ArcDigi. Author “Drones and Terrorism.” Politics, national security, and occasional nerdery.

amazon.com/Drones-Terrori…
Joined April 2015

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    Nicholas Grossman‏ @NGrossman81 Mar 8

    TO EVERYONE ARGUING TRUMP SHOULDN'T TALK TO NORTH KOREA: If getting Kim to the table isn't the point of sanctions, and war's a bad idea, what's the strategy? No one capitulates. Ever. But sometimes in talks they give something to get something. If there's no good deal, walk away.

    4:35 PM - 8 Mar 2018 from Urbana, IL
    • 24 Retweets
    • 62 Likes
    • guineadarlin Wada-Wooooo!!!™ Is my Nickname My 1st name is WILL Norm Kujawa Gary Paul Brian murdoch davis reinstate assault weapons ban Justice Warrior Troy Freund
    32 replies 24 retweets 62 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. Nicholas Grossman‏ @NGrossman81 Mar 8

        Evidently, I'm on a bit of an island here, with most saying Trump meeting with Kim is a bad idea. I think talking is a good idea. Here's why: 2/x

        5 replies 0 retweets 5 likes
        Show this thread
      3. Nicholas Grossman‏ @NGrossman81 Mar 8

        Some conservative commentators I respect (@RadioFreeTom @NoahCRothman et al) argue Trump meeting Kim is a bad idea because it rewards North Korea for bad behavior, gives Kim the legitimacy he craves, and the US didn't get enough preconditions to justify meeting. 3/x

        5 replies 0 retweets 5 likes
        Show this thread
      4. Nicholas Grossman‏ @NGrossman81 Mar 8

        However... 1) North Korea agreed to suspend missile and nuclear testing while talks go on. Considering they conducted one hydrogen-boosted nuclear weapon test and 16 ballistic missile tests in 2017--all of which US condemned--a testing freeze is a concession in advance. 4/x

        2 replies 1 retweet 3 likes
        Show this thread
      5. Nicholas Grossman‏ @NGrossman81 Mar 8

        2) Yes, Kim wants the prestige of meeting directly with a US president but what does he actually gain? Some propaganda videos for domestic consumption? Sure, but his power's already absolute. International acceptance? Hardly. Not unless there's a breakthrough deal. 5/x

        4 replies 2 retweets 1 like
        Show this thread
      6. Nicholas Grossman‏ @NGrossman81 Mar 8

        The other big criticism, mostly from the left, is that Trump's bound to screw it up. Maybe Kim'll flatter him and he'll give away the store. Can't totally rule that out. But Trump's POTUS. We can't put foreign policy on hold for 3 years. Not with NK's capabilities advancing. 6/x

        4 replies 1 retweet 5 likes
        Show this thread
      7. Nicholas Grossman‏ @NGrossman81 Mar 8

        Yes, previous agreements with North Korea haven't led to success. But holding negotiations doesn't mean one has to accept any deal. If nothing good is on the table, walk away. 7/x

        1 reply 1 retweet 4 likes
        Show this thread
      8. Nicholas Grossman‏ @NGrossman81 Mar 8

        Refusing to talk declares in advance that no deal is possible. Then what's the strategy? War? Incredibly costly. Sanctions until North Korea capitulates? No chance. 8/x

        3 replies 1 retweet 3 likes
        Show this thread
      9. Nicholas Grossman‏ @NGrossman81 Mar 8

        NO ONE CAPITULATES At least not without losing a major war (Nazi Germany, Imperial Japan). Thinking that pressure would lead to capitulation is how Saudis etc screwed up Qatar crisis. It's why pre-Iraq War demands didn't work. It's the primary mistake of Iran deal opponents. 9/x

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        Show this thread
      10. Nicholas Grossman‏ @NGrossman81 Mar 8

        Pressure leads to negotiations, not capitulation. Forces countries to the table. But if we won't talk to North Korea even after they suspend testing in advance, what's the point of pressure? 10/x

        1 reply 1 retweet 1 like
        Show this thread
      11. Nicholas Grossman‏ @NGrossman81 Mar 8

        Another criticism: negotiating shows that North Korea's path brings legitimacy. Hardly. Who would look at North Korea's experience over the last few decades and think it looks appealing? Besides, NK has nukes. And now ICBMs. Pretending otherwise gets us nowhere. 11/x

        1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
        Show this thread
      12. Nicholas Grossman‏ @NGrossman81 Mar 8

        Circumstances have changed. North Korea has a demonstrated nuclear capability. And Trump has unsettled North Korea, South Korea, China, and others with his "madman theory" bluster. As I wrote in this article, it's time for out-of-the-box thinking. https://arcdigital.media/three-out-of-the-box-options-for-north-korea-a73975561b02 … 12/x

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        Show this thread
      13. Nicholas Grossman‏ @NGrossman81 Mar 8

        I know many disagree. But if you think the US should reject talks, you need to come up with a plan that will successfully deescalate the situation on the Korean peninsula without the United States negotiating with Kim Jong-un's regime. I say it's worth the gamble. (END)

        3 replies 0 retweets 8 likes
        Show this thread
      14. Nicholas Grossman‏ @NGrossman81 Mar 8

        Nicholas Grossman Retweeted John Podhoretz

        You say this as if... 1) Meeting with POTUS is a huge deal. Not nothing, but they meet tons of people. 2) North Korea's path looks desirable to others. Endure decades of isolating sanctions and poverty, scratch together a nuke, and all you get is a meetinghttps://twitter.com/jpodhoretz/status/971902061141987330 …

        Nicholas Grossman added,

        John PodhoretzVerified account @jpodhoretz
        This is great. Want a meeting with Donald Trump? Test a nuke.
        5 replies 2 retweets 4 likes
        Show this thread
      15. Nicholas Grossman‏ @NGrossman81 Mar 8

        Here's another one. @MaxBoot says "Kim will be able to tell his people that the American president is kowtowing to him because he is scared of North Korea’s mighty nuclear arsenal." But he already tells his people stuff like that. And they believe it, because they're so isolated.

        1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
        Show this thread
      16. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. Justice Warrior‏ @OpenEyed_1 Mar 8
        Replying to @NGrossman81

        I think my main concern is TRUMP shouldn’t be the one to handle any delicate situations

        1 reply 0 retweets 10 likes
      3. Nicholas Grossman‏ @NGrossman81 Mar 8
        Replying to @OpenEyed_1

        I share the general concerns about the president. But we can't put foreign policy on hold for three years.

        2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
      4. AMB‏ @amb573 Mar 8
        Replying to @NGrossman81 @OpenEyed_1

        That is truly absurd. Saying an insane moron such as Trump should not be speaking to an insane dictator with nukes is not putting "foreign policy on old for three years." You are exaggerating to a truly ridiculous degree.

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      5. Nicholas Grossman‏ @NGrossman81 Mar 8
        Replying to @amb573 @OpenEyed_1

        Then what is it? Either POTUS conducts foreign policy or he doesn't If you think no POTUS should ever talk to North Korea, that's one thing (I disagree). But if you think other presidents should talk but this one shouldn't, then you're arguing foreign policy should be put on hold

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      6. AMB‏ @amb573 Mar 8
        Replying to @NGrossman81 @OpenEyed_1

        Which part of TRUMP should not speak to him are you missing? You are aware that presidents have people who work for them who do diplomacy for a living, yes?

        1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
      7. Nicholas Grossman‏ @NGrossman81 Mar 8
        Replying to @amb573 @OpenEyed_1

        Meaning send an envoy? I can see the merit in that argument. But that's different than the main talk/don't talk discussion. If you think it's a good idea to conduct high level talks, but not with the president personally involved, say so.

        2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
      8. Justice Warrior‏ @OpenEyed_1 Mar 8
        Replying to @NGrossman81 @amb573

        I feel exactly that

        2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
      9. Nicholas Grossman‏ @NGrossman81 Mar 8
        Replying to @OpenEyed_1 @amb573

        When you said "shouldn't be the one to handle" I thought you meant entirely uninvolved. There's no way to do that. POTUS runs foreign policy (for better or worse). But yes, having experienced aides, translators, a chief negotiator (Victor Cha?) would be beneficial.

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      10. 2 more replies

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