(THREAD) The Syrian war is moving from overlapping fights against insurgents--US + Kurds and other local allies v. ISIS; Assad + Iran + Russia v. Syrian rebels, everyone v. al Qaeda--to a dangerous new phase. Turkey and now Israel now conducting military operations in the country
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It wasn't the first time an Iranian-made drone entered Israeli airspace. The first time was way back in 2005, when an unarmed drone, operated by Hezbollah, briefly flew over northern Israel before crashing in the Mediterranean. Iran's drone industry is now quite sophisticated 5/x
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Russian personnel are stationed at Syria's T4 base. No reports of dead or injured Russians from the Israeli operation, but Russia called the attack "unacceptable." If the de facto Iran-Russia alliance in Syria gets into a conflict with Israel, it could easily suck in the US. 6/x
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Meanwhile on the opposite end of the country, US ally Turkey is conducting a ground operation against US-backed Kurds. US forces are stationed in areas Turkey is poised to attack. The US needs to flee (abandoning the Kurds) or convince Turkey to stop to avoid confrontation. 7/x
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And the Syrian military's operating near the Turkish offensive, trying to retake territory it lost to ISIS (who lost it to the US-backed local forces) Many military-to-military clashes possible. Turkey-Syria (and Russia?), Turkey-US, US-Syria. Risk of spiraling escalation. 8/x
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Iran and Russia are there to stay. They gained influence in the Syrian civil war, and aren't giving it up. Turkey and Israel border Syria, and will act to strengthen their positions and reduce cross-border threats. And the US is there, but doesn't seem to know what it wants (END)
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End of conversation
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