Afghanistan’s political/tribal divisions, Taliban resilience, Pakistan sanctuary: hard to avoid conclusion US policy not working. Question re-emerges: what is Afghanistan good enough? What are minimal, achievable aims rather than ambitious, unreal aims?https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/27/world/asia/afghanistan-kabul-attack.html?smprod=nytcore-ipad&smid=nytcore-ipad-share …
What about just holding chaos at bay? Afghanistan obviously won't become a stable democracy capable of handling internal security on its own in the near future. But US withdrawal would make it worse. Why isn't preventing that decline a worthwhile goal?
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Afghanistan has been unable to handle their internal security since the US invasion. The United States is acting as an ineffective police force working with a less effective partner. It's in Afghanistan's interest to have US presence, therefore, incentive to improve doesn't exist
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That's similar to the argument for full withdrawal from Iraq in 2011. Perhaps that increased Iraq's incentive to improve, but it also made it easier for ISIS to take large swaths of territory. In other words, incentives isn't enough.
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The question is, how long will the United States remain in Afghanistan acting as a police force? John McCain, during the 2008 Presidential election, alluded to the possibility of US occupation lasting 100 years. The US can't be a permanent occupying force
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It's not really an occupying force. Far too small, and not running basic security. But you're accurately describing the training + counterterrorism assistance mission as indefinite. It probably won't show clear, irreversible gains. The argument for it is the alternative's worse
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It's more than assistance. Just like in South Korea, if there is a military threat from a foreign/internal force, the US will be called upon to defend the territory. Again, the question is how long will the US remain in the country, what will that presence look like?
End of conversation
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