Just in case you thought Syria was over: US ally Turkey fighting US-backed Kurdish YPG, who played a central role in taking Raqqa from ISIS. Prediction: US lets it go, leaving the Kurds out to dry. Open question: What Syrian gov. does about this region.http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-42831296 …
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Avoiding confrontation won't be easy. Turkey's president vowed to attack Manbij, where US troops are stationed. Based on Turkey's interests and capabilities, the threat is credible. YPG linked to PKK, the Kurdish group in Turkey designated as terrorists by Turkey, US and others.
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As you can see from the map, Syrian Kurds control a large swath of northeast Syria. Turkey considers that a threat. That area was controlled by ISIS, but with American support, local forces (predominantly, but not all Kurdish) took it back About 2,000 US troops are stations therepic.twitter.com/zigP5egPeL
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From the beginning, I've been warning about the post-ISIS environment. The ability of the US-backed coalition to retake territory from ISIS was never really in doubt. However, the political forces that led to ISIS didn't just disappear.https://arcdigital.media/who-will-take-and-hold-raqqa-e4db38198129 …
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The Sunni Arabs in northeast Syria and northwest Iraq have faced persecution by the central governments in Damascus and Baghdad. While most don't like jihadists, they didn't put up much resistance to ISIS in the beginning. Enemy of my enemy.
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ISIS was the second Sunni insurgency along the Iraq-Syria border since the fall of Saddam. To avoid a third, someone has to hold the territory without sparking rebellion from locals. There's some relief now that the Islamic State has fallen, but is still unclear who will do that.
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In Syria, Kurdish forces hold most of the area, with US support. Turkey opposes that, and is already attacking. The Syrian government (and its Russian and Iranian backers) doesn't want to permanently forfeit part of its territory to Turkey, US-supported Kurds, or anyone else.
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The US must choose: support Syrian Kurds and confront Turkey, or quickly withdraw forces. Both have downsides, and require robust diplomatic engagement, which this administration--busy trumpeting the "defeat" of ISIS for domestic political gain--hasn't shown it can manage. (END)
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Replying to @NGrossman81
I wonder how much of Turkey’s aggression may have been triggered by Erdogan feeling confident he could manipulate his “buddy” Trump.
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Hard to say. Turkey has a strong national interest, and would oppose the YPG holding territory no matter who the US president is.
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