Just in case you thought Syria was over: US ally Turkey fighting US-backed Kurdish YPG, who played a central role in taking Raqqa from ISIS. Prediction: US lets it go, leaving the Kurds out to dry. Open question: What Syrian gov. does about this region.http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-42831296 …
-
-
From the beginning, I've been warning about the post-ISIS environment. The ability of the US-backed coalition to retake territory from ISIS was never really in doubt. However, the political forces that led to ISIS didn't just disappear.https://arcdigital.media/who-will-take-and-hold-raqqa-e4db38198129 …
Show this thread -
The Sunni Arabs in northeast Syria and northwest Iraq have faced persecution by the central governments in Damascus and Baghdad. While most don't like jihadists, they didn't put up much resistance to ISIS in the beginning. Enemy of my enemy.
Show this thread -
ISIS was the second Sunni insurgency along the Iraq-Syria border since the fall of Saddam. To avoid a third, someone has to hold the territory without sparking rebellion from locals. There's some relief now that the Islamic State has fallen, but is still unclear who will do that.
Show this thread -
In Syria, Kurdish forces hold most of the area, with US support. Turkey opposes that, and is already attacking. The Syrian government (and its Russian and Iranian backers) doesn't want to permanently forfeit part of its territory to Turkey, US-supported Kurds, or anyone else.
Show this thread -
The US must choose: support Syrian Kurds and confront Turkey, or quickly withdraw forces. Both have downsides, and require robust diplomatic engagement, which this administration--busy trumpeting the "defeat" of ISIS for domestic political gain--hasn't shown it can manage. (END)
Show this thread
End of conversation
New conversation -
-
-
I think Trump will try to keep Kurds away from Assad. I see escalation. But I could be wrong, there's high uncertainty.https://www.juancole.com/2018/01/trump-syrian-turkey.html …
-
The problem with that is the Syrian military is exhausted from nearly 7 years of civil war. And Turkey was more powerful to begin with. For the Syrian military to be a threat to the Turkish military, they'd need Russian help. And I haven't seen any indication Russia's willing.
-
All good points. Hmmm.... Russian priority #1 is U.S. out of Syria. Russia might prefer to work with Syria & Kurds rather than allow U.S. as protector. Kurds have been playing Russia-U.S. agin each other all along. My cloudy crystal ball: Kurds prefers U.S. help.
-
Dr. Landis is The Man on Syria. I can't quite get past fact he is married to Alawite woman, how can he not be biased? But he is often right.http://www.joshualandis.com/blog/a-sustainable-united-states-policy-for-north-syria-the-kurds-turkey-and-the-syrian-government-by-landis-and-barber/ …
End of conversation
New conversation -
Loading seems to be taking a while.
Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.