Good short thread making an important point.https://twitter.com/DouthatNYT/status/948382800503365632 …
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Replying to @DamonLinker
Do you think millions should protest Trump’s NK Twitter bluster?
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Replying to @jawillick
No. But I'm bearish on street protests. More seriously, I think Ross makes a good point about govt, markets, etc., responding to unprecedented geopolitical presidential bluster with a shrug of the shoulders.
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Replying to @DamonLinker
I guess I’m not convinced that Trump’s “button” tweet makes war more likely than it would be under a president who issued threats/proclamations through normal channels and with normal vocabulary.
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Replying to @jawillick @DamonLinker
But I am admittedly reassured by markets which I think do have a better sense of these things than individual pundits.
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Replying to @jawillick @DamonLinker
Markets sometimes have good sense. Other times they're subject to collective delusion. See, for example, bubbles (housing, dot com, etc.)
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Markets also tend to be bad at pricing in tail risk. The housing market collapsing is a good example. Accidental/unnecessary war is perhaps the best example of a low probability, high impact event markets aren't good at predicting.
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