Good short thread making an important point.https://twitter.com/DouthatNYT/status/948382800503365632 …
Markets sometimes have good sense. Other times they're subject to collective delusion. See, for example, bubbles (housing, dot com, etc.)
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Markets also tend to be bad at pricing in tail risk. The housing market collapsing is a good example. Accidental/unnecessary war is perhaps the best example of a low probability, high impact event markets aren't good at predicting.
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