(THREAD) The current #IranProtests show why the Trump administration’s confrontational strategy is a mistake, and a strategy based on containment and engagement would be better.
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Those favoring a purely confrontational strategy describe Iran as unremittingly evil. Domestic reform is impossible, and anything short of forced capitulation is unacceptable. 2/
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But Iranian society is complex. Some religious, some more secular. Some connected with the international community, others more disconnected and localized. Some pro-government, others anti- 3/
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Nicholas Grossman Retweeted Karim Sadjadpour
Here’s a great thread by
@ksadjadpour about how the protests highlight the complexities. 4/https://twitter.com/ksadjadpour/status/946865087717019648 …Nicholas Grossman added,
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The government likes to distract from domestic problems by demonizing foreign powers (US, Israel, Saudi Arabia) Treating Iran as uniform and pursuing confrontation risks rallying Iranians around the flag, undermining anti-government protests. 5/
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That happened after Trump gave a speech decertifying the Iran nuclear deal. Said Iran cheated but offered no proof. Staunch Iranian dissidents responded with praise for the government and the Revolutionary Guard. 6/
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Diplomatic and economic engagement strengthens the middle class, the internet-savvy youth, and other elements of Iranian society that prefer joining the international community over fighting it. 7/
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American advocates of confrontation often claim this excuses Iranian actions that run counter to US and allied interests, but that’s a straw man. As with the USSR, containment can focus on countering those actions while engagement cultivates internal change. 8/
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The US has to choose whether to take actions that strengthen the Iranians protesting or strengthen the hardliners. Scrapping the Iran deal and trying to isolate Iran, as Trump wants, would be a gift to the hardliners. Strengthening the moderates would be a smarter strategy. (END)
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