Seconded. Trump-Russia is its own thing. But compared to past scandals, Iran-Contra's a better fit than Watergate. Trump has years of experience with shady dealings. No matter what the campaign did, he's likely insulated from it. And, ultimately, it's up to Congress.https://twitter.com/BrendanNyhan/status/945858970119421952 …
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From what we know, the obstruction case looks pretty good, and the corruption case looks strong. Both of those are arguably impeachable offenses, but that only matters if Congress deems it so. Even with Democratic sweep in 2018, Republicans will have more than 1/3 of the Senate.
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But "the cover-up is worse than the crime" is a cliche for a reason. If anything like the wildest Trump-Russia conspiracy theories were true, we'd probably know more by know, especially considering how much this admin leaks.
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More could come out, but probably gray evidence like Iran-Contra rather than black-and-white like Watergate. Trump, pro-Trump media, and the Americans who believe them (or benefit from them) will proclaim his innocence. That's who Congressional Republicans care about most.
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A Constitutional crisis is still a serious possibility. Indictment for Kushner appears likely. Don Jr. maybe as well. If Trump tries to protect them, and Congress doesn't stop him, the president and his family are effectively above the law.https://arcdigital.media/americas-on-a-collision-course-with-a-constitutional-crisis-7b732a35c6fc …
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Alternatively, if Mueller tries to bring charges against Trump--say, for pre-presidential money laundering--that'll spark a different type of Constitutional crisis. Can a sitting president be indicted? Different lawyers give different answers. It's never really been tested.
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Trump-Russia hasn't peaked yet. The country will be tested. But, based on what we know now, it looks like neither those claiming blatant collusion nor those claiming unsubstantiated witch hunt will be proven correct. And that's more like Iran-Contra than Watergate. (END)
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