Tell your friend to smarten up. https://twitter.com/CherylReynolds/status/944919071300247552 …pic.twitter.com/H6oy1uyppt
International Relations prof at U. Illinois. Senior Editor @ArcDigi. Author “Drones and Terrorism.” Politics, national security, and occasional nerdery.
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Tell your friend to smarten up. https://twitter.com/CherylReynolds/status/944919071300247552 …pic.twitter.com/H6oy1uyppt
This is one of my biggest pet peeves as a researcher/psychometrician. The polls were actually more accurate in 2016 than in 2012. But no one noticed in 2012 b/c Obama was ahead in polls & won. In 2016, results were still within MOE even though it flipped from HRC to Trump.
The national polls were quite good, but we don’t elect by national popular vote. The predictive models were flawed—in part because they overrated national polls—and the media mistakenly focused on those models, giving the impression the race wasn’t close when it was.
But I know that’s not what the “polls were wrong” crowd is saying.
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