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NGrossman81's profile
Nicholas Grossman
Nicholas Grossman
Nicholas Grossman
@NGrossman81

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Nicholas Grossman

@NGrossman81

International Relations prof at U. Illinois. Senior Editor @ArcDigi. Author “Drones and Terrorism.” Politics, national security, and occasional nerdery.

amazon.com/Drones-Terrori…
Joined April 2015

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    Nicholas Grossman‏ @NGrossman81 2 Dec 2017

    BAD DEMOCRATIC TALKING POINT: Tax bill takes insurance from 13 million. No individual mandate means many *choose* to go without health insurance. ACA subsidies still available. But many who drop young/healthy. Risk pool worsens BETTER TALKING POINT: GOP voted to raise premiums

    12:17 PM - 2 Dec 2017 from Illinois, USA
    • 40 Retweets
    • 74 Likes
    • BumbleZest Drinks Diana Brown 🍄Crisis Actor🍄 Comrade Covfefe JeffreyLevicki Paul Baumgartel KMordhorst alec raymond holland Debbie Leslie
    5 replies 40 retweets 74 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. Liz LoBOO!veland  🎃 👹 👻‏ @lizl_genealogy 2 Dec 2017
        Replying to @NGrossman81

        I disagree. People did pretty crazy things to get or keep health insurance pre-ACA (e.g. stay at a job they hated). People understand the value of having it.

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      3. Nicholas Grossman‏ @NGrossman81 2 Dec 2017
        Replying to @lizl_genealogy

        Maybe you're right and the estimates of 13 million are wrong. Repealing individual mandate means almost anyone who "loses" insurance chooses not to buy it. Pay-go rules probably mean future Medicare/caid cuts. But nothing in the bill forcibly takes away insurance.

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      4. Liz LoBOO!veland  🎃 👹 👻‏ @lizl_genealogy 2 Dec 2017
        Replying to @NGrossman81

        It makes it less affordable. I've got too much else to continue arguing about this so I will exit here. Have a nice evening.

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      5. Nicholas Grossman‏ @NGrossman81 2 Dec 2017
        Replying to @lizl_genealogy

        I hope you have a nice evening too.

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      6. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. Steve Jarzombek  🌊 🌊 🌊‏ @sejarzo 2 Dec 2017
        Replying to @NGrossman81

        Does the bill remove funding for expanded Medicaid in states that accepted it, such as IN where I reside and depend on HIP2.0 for coverage?

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      3. Nicholas Grossman‏ @NGrossman81 2 Dec 2017
        Replying to @sejarzo

        I don't think so, but I'm not sure about that specific case, so you shouldn't take my word for it.

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      4. Steve Jarzombek  🌊 🌊 🌊‏ @sejarzo 2 Dec 2017
        Replying to @NGrossman81

        Because I have read some claims that it does, but who knows because few have been able to read the bill. Over 15 million US citizens have been able to enroll in Medicaid due to the ACA expansion.https://www.kff.org/health-reform/state-indicator/medicaid-expansion-enrollment/?currentTimeframe=0&sortModel=%7B%22colId%22:%22Location%22,%22sort%22:%22asc%22%7D …

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      5. End of conversation
      1. Richard Burger‏ @HealthCareHuck 2 Dec 2017
        Replying to @NGrossman81

        The "choose" because of lack of affordability. Nobody sane relishes being uninsured.

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. New conversation
      2. Naraldo Johnson‏ @Naraldoj 2 Dec 2017
        Replying to @NGrossman81 @JonEHecht

        W/O the mandate, the pre-existing conditions provision doesn't work. Adverse selection will cause a "death spiral" in the individual market. It's the same reason why we don't only sell car insurance to bad drivers. Insurance companies will leave the market.

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      3. Jon Spooky-as-heck-t‏ @JonEHecht 2 Dec 2017
        Replying to @Naraldoj @NGrossman81

        It's not completely clear what's going to happen. Between Medicaid (mostly free to those who qualify) and premium subsidies (keep coverage affordable for people eligible even if sticker price of premiums skyrocket) there will likely be many healthy who stay in.

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      4. Naraldo Johnson‏ @Naraldoj 2 Dec 2017
        Replying to @JonEHecht @NGrossman81

        Not to be rude but check my bio, I get how it works. Medicaid isn't free to the gov't. GOP has been trying to eliminate expansion since the start. Majority of ACA enrollment was Medicaid. So when (not if) the individual market fails, the law is repealed, 👋🏾 👋🏾 Medicaid.

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      5. Jon Spooky-as-heck-t‏ @JonEHecht 2 Dec 2017
        Replying to @Naraldoj @NGrossman81

        Oops! Sorry for not checking your bio. Yeah obviously it throws a wrench in the works, but until there actually are changes to Medicaid, this doesn't actually affect people's costs buying Medicaid, right? Nor their benefits?

        3 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      6. Jon Spooky-as-heck-t‏ @JonEHecht 2 Dec 2017
        Replying to @JonEHecht @Naraldoj @NGrossman81

        And with subsidies this year allowing some people to get plans as low as $75/month, you'd expect that there will still be a lot of people buying private insurance even without the mandate, right?

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      7. Naraldo Johnson‏ @Naraldoj 2 Dec 2017
        Replying to @JonEHecht @NGrossman81

        It's not about anecdotal numbers. Healthy young people don't buy insurance unless they have to. So even if a small percentage of them don't, it triggers price hikes (especially if the uninsured get sick or injured...which we all pay for). The spiral will start eventually.

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      8. Jon Spooky-as-heck-t‏ @JonEHecht 2 Dec 2017
        Replying to @Naraldoj @NGrossman81

        Obviously it will lead to fewer people signing up and higher premiums. But with those shocks being insulated for people <400% FPL, doesn't that mean we still eventually get an equilibrium, at higher costs and lower enrollment? CBO said Skinny Repeal was long-term stable, IIRC.

        2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      9. Naraldo Johnson‏ @Naraldoj 2 Dec 2017
        Replying to @JonEHecht @NGrossman81

        I am not an actuary but I do not believe we will. Maybe you'd reach an equilibrium in a market like car insurance because the worst drivers will be cut off. That's why the pre-existing conditions provision and the individual mandate go hand-in-hand.

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      10. End of conversation

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