(THREAD) The tax bill that just passed the Senate is terrible policy. But Republicans are right that passing it is better for them politically than failure. Here's why:
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An unfortunately high number of Americans treat politics like sports. My team rules, your team sucks. Details irrelevant. They'll celebrate this "win," and would've been discouraged by a loss. That encourages volunteers and turnout, and reduces chances of primary challenges. 4/x
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The bill screws over a lot of working and middle class Americans, including some Trump brought into the party. But how many of them will care? The pain doesn't really kick in for a few years. And the media/politicians they trust will say it helps them. Most will believe it. 5/x
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Democrats are already as motivated as they can be. Passing a big tax cut that almost exclusively helps rich people will motivate them. But so would trying, but failing, to pass a big tax cut that almost exclusively helps rich people. 6/x
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This doesn't change any of the criticisms of the bill's substance. It's not regular order, which McCain said matters. It's not close to deficit-neutral (even when assuming big economic growth), which Flake said matters. It'll make premiums go up, which Collins said matters. 7/x
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It's poorly constructed, deficit-financed stimulus at the exact wrong point in the business cycle. But the likely effect is a short-term boost. That's politically advantageous for 2018. Maybe the bubble won't pop until after 2020. (If it does, they'll blame something else). 8/x
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The Republican tax bill is basically a no-money down ballooning interest rate mortgage. It's a terrible idea in the long-run. But the immediate effects should be pretty nice. 9/x
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That's donors, ideologues, and politics-as-sports voters happy. And few besides Democrats unhappy. At least in the short term. The policy is bad for millions of Americans and for the country as a whole. But politically, passing it was better for Republicans than failure. (END)
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