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NGrossman81's profile
Nicholas Grossman
Nicholas Grossman
Nicholas Grossman
@NGrossman81

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Nicholas Grossman

@NGrossman81

International Relations prof at U. Illinois. Senior Editor @ArcDigi. Author “Drones and Terrorism.” Politics, national security, and occasional nerdery.

amazon.com/Drones-Terrori…
Joined April 2015

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    Nicholas Grossman‏ @NGrossman81 2 Dec 2017

    (THREAD) The tax bill that just passed the Senate is terrible policy. But Republicans are right that passing it is better for them politically than failure. Here's why:

    7:14 AM - 2 Dec 2017 from Illinois, USA
    • 54 Retweets
    • 72 Likes
    • José Delpino Avi B Cam Fentriss Sessha Batto Chewbacca the Hat Hope Saddie🥀 MissAnthrope Its ya prickly BOO 👻 🐡🌰
    6 replies 54 retweets 72 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. Nicholas Grossman‏ @NGrossman81 2 Dec 2017

        As some admitted, failing to cut rich people's taxes would've infuriated donors This is what they paid for. It's why they tolerate Trump damaging America's global position and the democratic norms at least some of them care about And, like it or not, money helps win elections 2/x

        2 replies 24 retweets 36 likes
        Show this thread
      3. Nicholas Grossman‏ @NGrossman81 2 Dec 2017

        Parts of the Republican base are ideologically committed to tax cuts above all else. They can ignore failure in every other area, but not this one. No tax cuts would've left them disillusioned. They'd never vote Democrat, but they might choose not to volunteer. Or vote. 3/x

        1 reply 4 retweets 27 likes
        Show this thread
      4. Nicholas Grossman‏ @NGrossman81 2 Dec 2017

        An unfortunately high number of Americans treat politics like sports. My team rules, your team sucks. Details irrelevant. They'll celebrate this "win," and would've been discouraged by a loss. That encourages volunteers and turnout, and reduces chances of primary challenges. 4/x

        1 reply 7 retweets 44 likes
        Show this thread
      5. Nicholas Grossman‏ @NGrossman81 2 Dec 2017

        The bill screws over a lot of working and middle class Americans, including some Trump brought into the party. But how many of them will care? The pain doesn't really kick in for a few years. And the media/politicians they trust will say it helps them. Most will believe it. 5/x

        4 replies 10 retweets 39 likes
        Show this thread
      6. Nicholas Grossman‏ @NGrossman81 2 Dec 2017

        Democrats are already as motivated as they can be. Passing a big tax cut that almost exclusively helps rich people will motivate them. But so would trying, but failing, to pass a big tax cut that almost exclusively helps rich people. 6/x

        2 replies 4 retweets 24 likes
        Show this thread
      7. Nicholas Grossman‏ @NGrossman81 2 Dec 2017

        This doesn't change any of the criticisms of the bill's substance. It's not regular order, which McCain said matters. It's not close to deficit-neutral (even when assuming big economic growth), which Flake said matters. It'll make premiums go up, which Collins said matters. 7/x

        1 reply 22 retweets 41 likes
        Show this thread
      8. Nicholas Grossman‏ @NGrossman81 2 Dec 2017

        It's poorly constructed, deficit-financed stimulus at the exact wrong point in the business cycle. But the likely effect is a short-term boost. That's politically advantageous for 2018. Maybe the bubble won't pop until after 2020. (If it does, they'll blame something else). 8/x

        2 replies 13 retweets 33 likes
        Show this thread
      9. Nicholas Grossman‏ @NGrossman81 2 Dec 2017

        The Republican tax bill is basically a no-money down ballooning interest rate mortgage. It's a terrible idea in the long-run. But the immediate effects should be pretty nice. 9/x

        3 replies 12 retweets 32 likes
        Show this thread
      10. Nicholas Grossman‏ @NGrossman81 2 Dec 2017

        That's donors, ideologues, and politics-as-sports voters happy. And few besides Democrats unhappy. At least in the short term. The policy is bad for millions of Americans and for the country as a whole. But politically, passing it was better for Republicans than failure. (END)

        3 replies 12 retweets 28 likes
        Show this thread
      11. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. Grant P‏ @gp_wisconsin 2 Dec 2017
        Replying to @NGrossman81

        Senate Republicans proved last night that representative democracy is as dead as Monty Python’s parrot. By what means can a people now restore democracy, when the political institutions for doing so have been hijacked? #oligarchy

        2 replies 2 retweets 19 likes
      3. Dedan Anderson‏ @DjDedan 2 Dec 2017
        Replying to @gp_wisconsin @NGrossman81

        I wouldn't say that yet until the people have actually did something. Electing officials is a step but we have to activate to enforce democracy. We need to raise hell. Protest, make noise before throwing in the towel. #resist

        2 replies 3 retweets 9 likes
      4. Grant P‏ @gp_wisconsin 2 Dec 2017
        Replying to @DjDedan @NGrossman81

        Throwing in the towel is the exact opposite of what I wanted people to think about.

        1 reply 0 retweets 8 likes
      5. Nicholas Grossman‏ @NGrossman81 2 Dec 2017
        Replying to @gp_wisconsin @DjDedan

        I wouldn't say representative democracy is dead. After all, tens of millions of Americans voted the current government into office. The response, if you don't like the results, is to win upcoming elections.

        3 replies 1 retweet 4 likes
      6. Grant P‏ @gp_wisconsin 2 Dec 2017
        Replying to @NGrossman81 @DjDedan

        My point is that it’s hard to win elections when money is the dominant controlling factor in election outcomes. More importantly, money controls what reps do once elected. These are facts.

        1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
      7. Grant P‏ @gp_wisconsin 2 Dec 2017
        Replying to @gp_wisconsin @NGrossman81 @DjDedan

        Finally, money controls the media megaphones and greatly shapes voters’ perceptions of the issues.

        1 reply 1 retweet 4 likes
      8. Nicholas Grossman‏ @NGrossman81 2 Dec 2017
        Replying to @gp_wisconsin @DjDedan

        That's not wrong. But the Democrats who voted against this bill raise/spend a lot of money too. That factor, on its own, doesn't explain this outcome.

        1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
      9. Grant P‏ @gp_wisconsin 2 Dec 2017
        Replying to @NGrossman81 @DjDedan

        Disagree. Unlike GOP, Dems aren’t solely dependent on their wealthiest donors; Dems have a larger natural constituency. GOP cannot win elections based on their policies alone; they must win by altering perceptions, which requires involvement of Big Money.

        2 replies 1 retweet 5 likes
      10. 1 more reply
      1. Diana Heliotes‏ @froggydoggie 2 Dec 2017
        Replying to @NGrossman81

        Simply put it's a sellout of the American people 4 tax breaks 4 the wealthy that will not change their lives one bit. I have some very wealthy friends n they r vehemently against this #TaxScamBill. Just one of my wealthy friends is for it. I swear, I don't even know him anymore.

        0 replies 4 retweets 8 likes
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      1. H. Rickover  🇵🇷 ⚜️‏ @Rickover2 2 Dec 2017
        Replying to @NGrossman81

        I guess they liked the outcome of the Kansas Tax Experiment!

        0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
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      1. Michael Esposito‏ @meesposito 2 Dec 2017
        Replying to @NGrossman81

        What was telling was that the stock market started to plummet on Friday morning, after the Senate vote was delayed. There must have been some interesting conversations during the rest of the day while it stabilized.

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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