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NGrossman81's profile
Nicholas Grossman
Nicholas Grossman
Nicholas Grossman
@NGrossman81

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Nicholas Grossman

@NGrossman81

International Relations prof at U. Illinois. Senior Editor @ArcDigi. Author “Drones and Terrorism.” Politics, national security, and occasional nerdery.

amazon.com/Drones-Terrori…
Joined April 2015

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    Nicholas Grossman‏ @NGrossman81 25 Nov 2017

    Blue: US manufacturing output Red: US manufacturing employment Notice how blue constantly rises (except for recessions), but red starts falling in 2000 and never recovers? If trade killed US manufacturing, blue would fall. The main cause of manufacturing job loss is automation.pic.twitter.com/3PJuKl1OBW

    6:08 AM - 25 Nov 2017 from Illinois, USA
    • 211 Retweets
    • 234 Likes
    • Peahen Olaf DiogenesHnyBadgr🌊 Belligerent Jacobin Jennifer Baty TDB68 Cindy Robertson Mugwump Marcus Occhialini
    15 replies 211 retweets 234 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. Ned Hallowell‏ @NedHallowell 26 Nov 2017
        Replying to @NGrossman81 @ChurchillZoe

        So tax windfalls going to corporations will go to automation expansion/upgrades with need for less workers/insurance or trump’s more workers, higher wages? Wonder what Wall Street thinks...

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      3. Nicholas Grossman‏ @NGrossman81 26 Nov 2017
        Replying to @NedHallowell @ChurchillZoe

        Most likely the former. If you're interested, I wrote an article on why big tax cuts in the current macroeconomic environment are unlikely to lead to more jobs/higher wages:https://arcdigital.media/the-republican-tax-plans-giant-problem-s-bc668514d824 …

        1 reply 1 retweet 1 like
      4. Ned Hallowell‏ @NedHallowell 26 Nov 2017
        Replying to @NGrossman81 @ChurchillZoe

        I’ve read your fine article and have seen the video. I definitely think it’s the former, my attempt at sarcasm was poorly executed.

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      5. Nicholas Grossman‏ @NGrossman81 26 Nov 2017
        Replying to @NedHallowell @ChurchillZoe

        I thought you were being sarcastic, but always tough on Twitter.

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
      6. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. sikntyrd54 VOTE on 11/6/2018‏ @sikntyrd54 25 Nov 2017
        Replying to @NGrossman81 @MindsEyeWithME

        You are correct. Odd no one is discussing how to address AI and it’s impact on the workforce. Thanks for sharing. Very important issue.

        3 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
      3. Nicholas Grossman‏ @NGrossman81 25 Nov 2017
        Replying to @sikntyrd54 @MindsEyeWithME

        Agreed. I don't have an answer for this. But I know it's a problem we need to address.

        1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
      4. Elena Vella‏ @MindsEyeWithME 25 Nov 2017
        Replying to @NGrossman81 @sikntyrd54

        It's more important to address than bringing back coal.

        1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
      5. sikntyrd54 VOTE on 11/6/2018‏ @sikntyrd54 25 Nov 2017
        Replying to @MindsEyeWithME @NGrossman81

        Ya’ think? 😅

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
      6. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. Russell Christopher‏ @russellc 25 Nov 2017
        Replying to @NGrossman81

        I don't wish to become a protagonist anymore than is necessary because I think this issue needs to be discussed with all view points and especially with people who study the issue. But it would be interesting to see China on this plot.

        1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
      3. Nicholas Grossman‏ @NGrossman81 25 Nov 2017
        Replying to @russellc

        That'd be interesting. St. Louis Fed makes US data easily available, but I don't know of a similar source for China. My guess is output rises rapidly and employment rises too, especially 2002-2007, given China's type of manufacturing and comparative advantage. But that's a guess.

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      4. Russell Christopher‏ @russellc 25 Nov 2017
        Replying to @NGrossman81

        China is a black box. China is rapidly advancing in tech e.g. efficient bullet trains and metros and ubiquitous wechat etc. In TPP space, main US demand was for copyright law which I assume would be to prevent Chinese from appropriating tech funded and developed here.

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
      5. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. Jon Sayles‏ @SaylesJon 25 Nov 2017
        Replying to @NGrossman81

        This is something I vehemently disagreed with for years - and now have to backtrack and admit that it's right. Automation's the blue-collar-job-crushing titan. And there is absolutely no way back

        2 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
      3. Nicholas Grossman‏ @NGrossman81 25 Nov 2017
        Replying to @SaylesJon

        You're right, there's no way back. And the problem's going to get worse with self-driving vehicles. Something in the range of 5 million Americans have the job of driver (trucks, taxi/rideshare, delivery, etc.) But to address the jobs issue, we need to correctly identify the cause

        2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
      4. Jon Sayles‏ @SaylesJon 25 Nov 2017
        Replying to @NGrossman81

        (over-simplistically) - the only way out is to educate American workers for the next generation(s) of labor. But I don't see where the money's going to come from & of course with orange-crush in office, the above wouldn't even rise to the level of a sarcastic joke

        4 replies 0 retweets 1 like
      5. Sparklepuff  ✨ 🌫‏ @Sparklepuff2 25 Nov 2017
        Replying to @SaylesJon @NGrossman81

        Millions of the perfectly educated struggle to find jobs in their field. Employers that require education often refuse to hire new grads but claim lack of available workers & call those who have languished too long outside the field undesirable. 🍊 Imbecile makes EVERYTHING worse

        1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
      6. Jon Sayles‏ @SaylesJon 25 Nov 2017
        Replying to @Sparklepuff2 @NGrossman81

        Not disagreeing with you - that the 1% have broken the backs of the working class. And made work a misery - (I regularly do 60-70 hour weeks ... no OT ... just to keep my job). But the effect of automation is worse than we realize on manufacturing.

        1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
      7. Sparklepuff  ✨ 🌫‏ @Sparklepuff2 25 Nov 2017
        Replying to @SaylesJon @NGrossman81

        Not disagreeing... just expanding... It looked like an interesting spot to spout off. Manufacturing has been nearly destroyed. We see automation. The 1% Claim that they "can't compete" & maintain employees in US. But they're Billionaires because they've CHOSEN to do this to us.

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      8. Jon Sayles‏ @SaylesJon 25 Nov 2017
        Replying to @Sparklepuff2 @NGrossman81

        Agree with you - esp. about billionaires & their lies. I'm seeing a future like 13th Century England - with landed nobles (billionaires) and serfs/servants - 99%

        1 reply 1 retweet 2 likes
      9. Sparklepuff  ✨ 🌫‏ @Sparklepuff2 25 Nov 2017
        Replying to @SaylesJon @NGrossman81

        Feudalism follows Fascism. 🍊 is the frontman for a soulless international cabal that plans to take everything & push the masses back into the Stone Age. A simple reading of their published goals, a few days watching what they are openly doing. It's not just conspiracy theorypic.twitter.com/NvoFF20QrB

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      10. 6 more replies
      1. New conversation
      2. Jacque G White‏ @JacqueGWhite2 25 Nov 2017
        Replying to @NGrossman81

        Of course it is! Precisely why we need a more educated work force to fill the new/next jobs: science, technologies, environmental,etc & making education affordable is one way to do it.

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      3. Common Sense‏ @c0mm0nsensical 25 Nov 2017
        Replying to @JacqueGWhite2 @NGrossman81

        I worry if there are enough science tech enviro and other services jobs like you mention to absorb the volume of labor

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      4. Jacque G White‏ @JacqueGWhite2 26 Nov 2017
        Replying to @c0mm0nsensical @NGrossman81

        Me too actually! Low paying service jobs aren’t going to cut it! Another thing: workforce is shrinking as my generation grows older & fewer to replace us. Whole other concern there: fewer workers, fewer payroll taxes

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      5. End of conversation

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