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NGrossman81's profile
Nicholas Grossman
Nicholas Grossman
Nicholas Grossman
@NGrossman81

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Nicholas Grossman

@NGrossman81

International Relations prof at U. Illinois. Senior Editor @ArcDigi. Author “Drones and Terrorism.” Politics, national security, and occasional nerdery.

amazon.com/Drones-Terrori…
Joined April 2015

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    1. Nicholas Grossman‏ @NGrossman81 22 Nov 2017

      TO AMERICANS WHO OPPOSED THE TPP FROM THE LEFT: The 11 other countries are moving forward, but scrapped labor and environmental protections the US got them to include. Once again, you compared reality to imagined perfection rather than probable alternatives.

      310 replies 5,082 retweets 12,193 likes
    2. Lorene Lake‏ @LakeLorene 23 Nov 2017
      Replying to @NGrossman81

      Thing is, a good % of them opposed it to protect WC jobs. I wonder how this situation affects jobs.

      4 replies 1 retweet 6 likes
      Nicholas Grossman‏ @NGrossman81 23 Nov 2017
      Replying to @LakeLorene

      The most likely effect was neutral or slightly positive for jobs in the aggregate. Some factories would've moved, but US companies would've gotten more customers, and the costs of consumer goods and manufacturing inputs would've gone down. Some people lose jobs, others gain jobs.

      11:59 AM - 23 Nov 2017
      • 7 Retweets
      • 120 Likes
      • Cecily Jeremy Skog Gregorius Mercator Jake Bita Meol Ken Warnock SS7019 twist Daniel Francis 🍩
      6 replies 7 retweets 120 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Nicholas Grossman‏ @NGrossman81 23 Nov 2017
          Replying to @NGrossman81 @LakeLorene

          87% of manufacturing job loss in the US over the last two decades has been due to automation, not trade. Some industries see jobs move due to trade, but it's better to help those people than sacrifice everything else in the hope of saving jobs that robots will do soon anyway.

          14 replies 72 retweets 326 likes
        3. SS7019‏ @sharmila819 23 Nov 2017
          Replying to @NGrossman81 @LakeLorene

          Well said. The distinction between automation & trade is what people fail to understand.

          3 replies 5 retweets 89 likes
        4. Realist Left‏ @realistleft 23 Nov 2017
          Replying to @sharmila819 @NGrossman81 @LakeLorene

          Yes, let's ignore the $600-$700 billion annual manufacturing trade deficit, and blame the robots. Or ignore that we had the same number of manufacturing jobs in 1971 that we had in 2000 (17.2 million). automation shedding 4.8 million manufacturing jobs is a dangerous myth.

          1 reply 2 retweets 7 likes
        5. Celeste‏ @celestewhite 23 Nov 2017
          Replying to @realistleft @sharmila819 and

          So what did shed 4.8m manufacturing jobs?

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        6. Realist Left‏ @realistleft 23 Nov 2017
          Replying to @celestewhite @sharmila819 and

          The trade deficit in manufactured goods, and then the collapse in demand following the 2001 and 2007-09 recessions.http://www.epi.org/publication/manufacturing-job-loss-trade-not-productivity-is-the-culprit/ …

          1 reply 1 retweet 4 likes
        7. Celeste‏ @celestewhite 24 Nov 2017
          Replying to @realistleft

          Thanks!

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        8. End of conversation
        1. New conversation
        2. LL‏ @skcalgarian 24 Nov 2017
          Replying to @NGrossman81 @LakeLorene

          Basically MFG GDP has been fairly constant, while employment has fallen. This is how we know it’s true.

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        3. Nicholas Grossman‏ @NGrossman81 24 Nov 2017
          Replying to @skcalgarian @LakeLorene

          Red line US manufacturing output. Blue line US manufacturing employment. We're making more stuff than ever. We're just doing it with robots.pic.twitter.com/367ygfWirB

          0 replies 1 retweet 0 likes
        4. End of conversation
        1. New conversation
        2. Lorene Lake‏ @LakeLorene 23 Nov 2017
          Replying to @NGrossman81

          Thanks. So overall, we probably would’ve been better off in the future economy.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Nicholas Grossman‏ @NGrossman81 23 Nov 2017
          Replying to @LakeLorene

          For me, the geopolitical gains were the most important. Tie Pacific Rim economies to the US, exclude (and therefore contain) China. There'd be both good and bad econ effects. But the world will move on whether we're in or out, and US can't influence it if we're not a part of it.

          1 reply 1 retweet 5 likes
        4. 1 more reply
        1. Hawk I. Pierce‏ @Hawk__I__Pierce 24 Nov 2017
          Replying to @NGrossman81 @LakeLorene

          If the Bears would have made me their head coach, they would have won at least a few Super Bowls. U can’t prove that wrong! I’m a genius!

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. The Cyboo‏ @r0wdy_ 24 Nov 2017
          Replying to @NGrossman81 @LakeLorene

          This. The jobs were likely going overseas anyway. The TPP basically hedged that job loss with preferential treatment for American companies wanting in to emerging Asian markets. Especially IP protection from China. Jobs lost made up with billions in taxable revenue.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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