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NGrossman81's profile
Nicholas Grossman
Nicholas Grossman
Nicholas Grossman
@NGrossman81

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Nicholas Grossman

@NGrossman81

International Relations prof at U. Illinois. Senior Editor @ArcDigi. Author “Drones and Terrorism.” Politics, national security, and occasional nerdery.

amazon.com/Drones-Terrori…
Joined April 2015

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    Nicholas Grossman‏ @NGrossman81 22 Nov 2017

    TO AMERICANS WHO OPPOSED THE TPP FROM THE LEFT: The 11 other countries are moving forward, but scrapped labor and environmental protections the US got them to include. Once again, you compared reality to imagined perfection rather than probable alternatives.

    6:30 AM - 22 Nov 2017
    • 5,082 Retweets
    • 12,193 Likes
    • crystal Maria Gambrelli🇳🇴✨ Donnica Moore CaptainGarrett BJP A pumpkin, but with low battery Vote November 6th matt Q TransitActionNetwork
    310 replies 5,082 retweets 12,193 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. Lorene Lake‏ @LakeLorene 23 Nov 2017
        Replying to @NGrossman81

        Thing is, a good % of them opposed it to protect WC jobs. I wonder how this situation affects jobs.

        4 replies 1 retweet 6 likes
      3. Nicholas Grossman‏ @NGrossman81 23 Nov 2017
        Replying to @LakeLorene

        The most likely effect was neutral or slightly positive for jobs in the aggregate. Some factories would've moved, but US companies would've gotten more customers, and the costs of consumer goods and manufacturing inputs would've gone down. Some people lose jobs, others gain jobs.

        6 replies 7 retweets 120 likes
      4. Nicholas Grossman‏ @NGrossman81 23 Nov 2017
        Replying to @NGrossman81 @LakeLorene

        87% of manufacturing job loss in the US over the last two decades has been due to automation, not trade. Some industries see jobs move due to trade, but it's better to help those people than sacrifice everything else in the hope of saving jobs that robots will do soon anyway.

        14 replies 72 retweets 326 likes
      5. SS7019‏ @sharmila819 23 Nov 2017
        Replying to @NGrossman81 @LakeLorene

        Well said. The distinction between automation & trade is what people fail to understand.

        3 replies 5 retweets 89 likes
      6. Realist Left‏ @realistleft 23 Nov 2017
        Replying to @sharmila819 @NGrossman81 @LakeLorene

        Yes, let's ignore the $600-$700 billion annual manufacturing trade deficit, and blame the robots. Or ignore that we had the same number of manufacturing jobs in 1971 that we had in 2000 (17.2 million). automation shedding 4.8 million manufacturing jobs is a dangerous myth.

        1 reply 2 retweets 7 likes
      7. Celeste‏ @celestewhite 23 Nov 2017
        Replying to @realistleft @sharmila819 and

        So what did shed 4.8m manufacturing jobs?

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      8. Realist Left‏ @realistleft 23 Nov 2017
        Replying to @celestewhite @sharmila819 and

        The trade deficit in manufactured goods, and then the collapse in demand following the 2001 and 2007-09 recessions.http://www.epi.org/publication/manufacturing-job-loss-trade-not-productivity-is-the-culprit/ …

        1 reply 1 retweet 4 likes
      9. Celeste‏ @celestewhite 24 Nov 2017
        Replying to @realistleft

        Thanks!

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
      10. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. Patrick Lozada‏ @patrick_lozada 23 Nov 2017
        Replying to @NGrossman81

        Could you source this for me? Previous FT and WaPo coverage noted protections remained intact.https://www.ft.com/content/c5cdd3aa-c82d-11e7-ab18-7a9fb7d6163e …

        1 reply 0 retweets 19 likes
      3. Nicholas Grossman‏ @NGrossman81 24 Nov 2017
        Replying to @patrick_lozada

        I reacted to statements by Wendy Cutler, the former US deputy trade representative, and this report in Politico:https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/11/21/trump-nafta-trans-pacific-partnership-companies-trade-215851 …

        1 reply 3 retweets 11 likes
      4. Robert O'Callahan‏ @rocallahan 24 Nov 2017
        Replying to @NGrossman81 @patrick_lozada

        David Parker (NZ Trade Minister, involved in negotiations) says environmental and labour standards are still part of CPTPP. https://www.newsroom.co.nz/2017/11/12/59799/the-fight-for-multilateral-trade … I'm not sure where Politico sourced their info, but seems likely they're just wrong.

        1 reply 0 retweets 8 likes
      5. Robert O'Callahan‏ @rocallahan 24 Nov 2017
        Replying to @rocallahan @NGrossman81 @patrick_lozada

        Seems like you should retract your original tweet.

        1 reply 0 retweets 9 likes
      6. Nicholas Grossman‏ @NGrossman81 24 Nov 2017
        Replying to @rocallahan @patrick_lozada

        A couple people have posted this, but I don't see a direct contradiction. Parker: "providing enforcement mechanisms to hold countries to account if they didn’t meet labour and environmental standards." Doesn't specify which standards. Nor that new TPP's are identical to old TPP.

        2 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
      7. Robert O'Callahan‏ @rocallahan 24 Nov 2017
        Replying to @NGrossman81 @patrick_lozada

        Your tweet (and Politico) clearly suggest to readers that labour and environmental standards had been scrapped completely, not just tweaked or weakened.

        2 replies 0 retweets 13 likes
      8. Nicholas Grossman‏ @NGrossman81 24 Nov 2017
        Replying to @rocallahan @patrick_lozada

        I didn't read the Politico article that way, and that's not my position. Zero labor or environmental standards would be ridiculous, and really easy to disprove.

        0 replies 1 retweet 2 likes
      9. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. Dean Baker‏ @DeanBaker13 24 Nov 2017
        Replying to @NGrossman81

        What was good about making patent and copyright protections longer and stronger? The gains from the deal were almost zero according to the USITC. Is there some obligation to support any deal big Democratic contributors cook up?

        4 replies 2 retweets 39 likes
      3. Nicholas Grossman‏ @NGrossman81 24 Nov 2017
        Replying to @DeanBaker13

        Improves cost-benefit analysis for R&D But there are good arguments this provision's net negative TPP's economic benefit wasn't big. But the geopolitical benefit was. Strengthen US relationships with 11 countries, contain China. Much bigger long run impact than copyrights/patents

        2 replies 3 retweets 23 likes
      4. Dean Baker‏ @DeanBaker13 25 Nov 2017
        Replying to @NGrossman81

        If the point was to "contain" China it was pretty poorly designed, Note the rules of origin are very lax. The country that benefits in that story is China, which will have much of its output re-exported to U.S. with TPP preferences

        2 replies 0 retweets 10 likes
      5. Nicholas Grossman‏ @NGrossman81 25 Nov 2017
        Replying to @DeanBaker13

        Geopolitically, not economically. It's not a tariff scheme. But it did strengthen America's relationships with the 11 PacRim countries, and give the US some influence over regional trading rules. Withdrawing alienated those countries and squandered that influence.

        1 reply 1 retweet 7 likes
      6. Dean Baker‏ @DeanBaker13 25 Nov 2017
        Replying to @NGrossman81

        Our politicians should be able to make pacts that don't threaten the health of tens of millions of people and worsen inequality.

        0 replies 1 retweet 12 likes
      7. End of conversation

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