(THREAD) I'm going to live tweet Trump's #IranDeal speech, scheduled for 12:45 EDT, posting in reply to this one.
Follow along or read later
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In 2015, Congress passed the "Iran Nuclear Agreement Review Act" (INARA) It effectively criticized the
#IranNuclearDeal, without stopping itShow this thread -
INARA requires the president to certify, every 90 days, that Iran is complying with
#IranNuclearDeal.Show this thread -
Congress effectively said "we want to be seen distrusting Iran and opposing the
#IranDeal, but don't want to actually do anything about it."Show this thread -
Every party to the
#IranDeal (UK, France, Germany, China, Russia) says Iran's living up to its obligations. Even Trump certified it twice.Show this thread -
But during the campaign, Trump grandstanded against the
#IranDeal (without ever demonstrating that he understands it).Show this thread -
Because Trump said the
#IranDeal's terrible, he thinks staying in makes him look weak. To Trump, that matters more than US foreign policy.Show this thread -
SecDef Mattis, Chair of Joint Chiefs Dunford, NatSec Advisor McMaster, SecState Tillerson, etc. all think US should stay in the
#IranDealShow this thread -
INARA gives Trump an out. He can "decertify," saying Iran's not in compliance. But not actually do anything in response.
#IranDealShow this thread -
That abdicates responsibility, kicking the ball to Congress to decide on new sanctions, much as Congress kicked the ball to Obama.
#IranDealShow this thread -
After decertification, Congress has 60 days. With Congressional gridlock (and Iran complying with
#Irandeal), chances are they do nothing...Show this thread -
...or at least nothing substantial. That leaves
#IranDeal in a weird limbo, with POTUS saying US is out, but US not doing anything differentShow this thread -
Ok, that's the background. If you want more, check out my recent
#IranDeal article. I'll be back when speech starts.https://arcdigital.media/withdrawing-from-the-iran-nuclear-deal-is-trumps-worst-decision-so-far-a88356e3ff2c …Show this thread -
The Iranian government is certainly repressive and anti-American, but worth remembering the revolution overthrew U.S.-installed dictator.
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Did he just blame Iran for 9/11? Disturbing parallels to inaccurate accusations against Iraq in 2002-03.
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Everyone should clearly understand: most of these accusations are accurate. The situation's not simple. But still. Accusations accurate.
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Holy crap. The Iranian government was on the verge of total collapse in 2015? TOTALLY FALSE. This misconception explains a lot.
#IranDealShow this thread -
Iran got sanctions relief only after the IAEA certified Iran had given up almost all uranium enrichment and destroyed its plutonium reactor.
Show this thread -
We *should* work with our allies to counter Iran's destabilizing activities. Allies like UK, France, and Germany in the
#IranDeal.Show this thread -
Challenging Iran on ballistic missiles is the right thing to do. But that's not in the
#IranDeal, and scrapping deal it harder, not easier.Show this thread -
Iranian hardliners, who have been arguing internally that the United States cannot be trusted, are loving this.
#IranDealShow this thread -
The US can't terminate the
#IranDeal. America can only renege on its commitments. Can't force UK, France, Germany, Russia, China, or Iran.Show this thread -
This is so muddled. Helping pro-trade, pro-freedom, pro-democracy Iranians gain domestically is smart. But scrapping
#IranDeal does oppositeShow this thread -
Many of Trump's criticisms and stated goals make sense. But his proposed strategy will hurt those goals. Totally backwards.
#IranDealShow this thread -
Here's why even trying to force Europe to impose new sanctions they think shouldn't be imposed is so risky
#IranDealhttps://arcdigital.media/scrapping-the-iran-deal-could-break-the-western-alliance-6412fab60670 …Show this thread -
Sanctioning Iranian Revolutionary Guard is interesting. They're semi-independent, with some funding coming from businesses they own.
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Revolutionary Guard is responsible for destabilizing activities in Iraq, Yemen, Lebanon, and elsewhere. But also made big gains against ISIS
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Trump denounced Iran for supporting Bashar al Assad in Syria. Assad's other big supporter is Russia. Is Trump going to denounce Russia too?
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If you're concerned about Iran getting a nuclear weapon after parts of
#IranDeal end in 2030s, why make it easier for Iran to get one now?Show this thread -
A frustrating speech. Enough truth mixed among the falsehoods that people who want to believe the whole thing will find a way.
#IranDealShow this thread -
In a test, US Energy Dept tried to hide nuclear activity. Cleaned up, paved. It failed. Radioactivity shows up. Iran couldn't hide it either
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