With about 35 million people, the Kurds have long been called the world's largest ethnic group without a state.
#KurdistanReferendum
2/x
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Problem is, everyone else opposes it. Iraqi government strongly opposed. The Kurds' long-time US ally is opposed
#KurdistanReferendum 13/xShow this thread -
Most opposed are Turkey and Iran. They fear a successful
#KurdishReferendum will prompt their Kurds to want independence too. 14/xShow this thread -
Turkey has fought a decades-long on-and-off war with Kurdish separatists. They've faced many terrorist attacks.
#KurdistanReferendum 15/xShow this thread -
Preventing an independent Kurdish state is a top priority for Turkey. So much that it's shaped Turkey's strategy in Syrian civil war 16/x
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As the Kurds go to the polls, the Turkish and Iranian militaries are holding large exercises. Not a subtle threat.
#KurdishReferendum 17/xShow this thread -
Turnout for the
#KurdistanReferendum is expected to be high, and they will almost certainly vote for independence by a large margin. 18/xShow this thread -
If the Iraqi Kurdish regional government follows the
#KurdishReferendum by declaring independence, Turkey and/or Iran could attack. 19/xShow this thread -
The Peshmerga's not weak, but the Turkish military is much stronger. Remember, the Kurds needed US help to push back ISIS. 20/x
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Would the US let it's Kurdish ally get attacked? Would the US fire upon its NATO ally Turkey?
#KurdishReferendum forces those questions 21/xShow this thread -
Iranian military is more powerful than the Peshmerga as well. If Iran attacks, will it spiral into a larger US-Iran war? 22/x
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What will the Turkish Kurds do? As Turkey fears, the separatists could easily see the Iraqi
#KurdishReferendum as motivation, and rebel 23/xShow this thread -
The
#KurdistanReferendum also strains the anti-ISIS coalition, putting the Kurds, Iraq, Turkey, and US on potentially different sides. 24/xShow this thread -
Fearing larger conflict, the US implored the Kurds not to do it. But they think they've waited more than long enough
#KurdishReferendum 25/xShow this thread -
Possible outcomes range from a new, relatively stable, relatively multi-ethnic and multi-confessional, democratic state... 26/x
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... to a regional interstate war--the last thing the Middle East needs. Watch closely what happens after the
#KurdistanReferendum. (END)Show this thread
End of conversation
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Thank you for posting this, Nicholas!
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