(THREAD) So much going on, you might miss today's biggest story, the #KurdistanReferendum. Will change the Middle East and could spark war.pic.twitter.com/cjwAN4w6b5
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When ISIS swept across northern Iraq in 2014, the Iraqi army folded, but the Kurdish Peshmerga held.
#KurdistanReferendum
9/x
With US air support, the Peshmerga pushed ISIS back, taking control of Kirkuk and other areas (shaded blue).
#KurdistanReferendum
10/xpic.twitter.com/nwKKQShEzp
The Kurds have wanted an independent state for at least a century. Arguably much more.
#KurdistanReferendum
11/x
They've fought and died to protect their land. They see little value in Iraqi central government
They're holding a #KurdistanReferendum
12/x
Problem is, everyone else opposes it. Iraqi government strongly opposed. The Kurds' long-time US ally is opposed
#KurdistanReferendum
13/x
Most opposed are Turkey and Iran. They fear a successful #KurdishReferendum will prompt their Kurds to want independence too.
14/x
Turkey has fought a decades-long on-and-off war with Kurdish separatists. They've faced many terrorist attacks.
#KurdistanReferendum
15/x
Preventing an independent Kurdish state is a top priority for Turkey. So much that it's shaped Turkey's strategy in Syrian civil war 16/x
As the Kurds go to the polls, the Turkish and Iranian militaries are holding large exercises. Not a subtle threat.
#KurdishReferendum
17/x
Turnout for the #KurdistanReferendum is expected to be high, and they will almost certainly vote for independence by a large margin.
18/x
If the Iraqi Kurdish regional government follows the #KurdishReferendum by declaring independence, Turkey and/or Iran could attack.
19/x
The Peshmerga's not weak, but the Turkish military is much stronger. Remember, the Kurds needed US help to push back ISIS. 20/x
Would the US let it's Kurdish ally get attacked? Would the US fire upon its NATO ally Turkey? #KurdishReferendum forces those questions
21/x
Iranian military is more powerful than the Peshmerga as well. If Iran attacks, will it spiral into a larger US-Iran war? 22/x
What will the Turkish Kurds do? As Turkey fears, the separatists could easily see the Iraqi #KurdishReferendum as motivation, and rebel
23/x
The #KurdistanReferendum also strains the anti-ISIS coalition, putting the Kurds, Iraq, Turkey, and US on potentially different sides.
24/x
Fearing larger conflict, the US implored the Kurds not to do it. But they think they've waited more than long enough
#KurdishReferendum
25/x
Possible outcomes range from a new, relatively stable, relatively multi-ethnic and multi-confessional, democratic state... 26/x
... to a regional interstate war--the last thing the Middle East needs.
Watch closely what happens after the #KurdistanReferendum.
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