(THREAD) Everyone wishes there was an easy solution to #NorthKorea, but that won't make it so. And Trump's making it worse.
#NorthKoreaNukespic.twitter.com/IAhCbgDw2M
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Nuke-tipped missiles that can hit US would finalize #NorthKorea's deterrent. But they can already do enough that US won't strike first.
3/x
Trump's bluster gives Kim the enemy he wants. #NorthKorea's leader can publicly defy the US, giving him stature.
4/xhttps://arcdigital.media/dont-worry-too-much-about-the-trump-kim-war-of-words-d8a77c0ced63 …
The US won't fire first, but will respond with overwhelming force. But thanks to Trump more of the world will blame the US if it happens 5/x
A few weeks ago, Trump supporters said the president's tough rhetoric got Kim to back down. How's that looking now?
#NorthKoreaNukes
6/x
Now, Trump's attacks on #SouthKorea over trade and "appeasement" alienate a valuable ally, while doing nothing to help with #NorthKorea.
7/x
His threat to cut all trade with anyone who trades with #NorthKorea is an obvious bluff.
8/x
Stop trade with China and stock markets--one of Trump's favorite measurements of his performance--would crash. 9/xhttps://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/891343645529567232?lang=en …
America would plunge into recession. Cutting trade with #China over the #NorthKorea issue is Mutual Assured Economic Destruction.
10/x
Cutting off trade with China is a guy-at-the-end-of-the-bar idea. Might sound good for a sec, but gets dumber when you think about it. 11/x
-China doesn't want a trade war. They'll give in!
-They know the US doesn't want a trade war. They'll call the bluff.
#NorthKorea
12/x
If Trump's dumb/crazy enough to do it, China would rather take the pain than capitulate. Giving in would just invite more demands. 13/x
To be clear: Trump's approach to #NorthKorea is terrible, but that doesn't mean there's a clear solution he's ignoring
#NorthKoreaNukes
14/x
As I explained in this article, the US and allies have tried many approaches to #NorthKorea. None solved it.
15/xhttps://medium.com/@nicholasgrossman/how-do-you-solve-a-problem-north-korea-69175f68b8de …
But, even though we can't solve it, we can still make it better or worse.
#NorthKoreaNukes
16/x
A credible threat of overwhelming force in response to an attack prevents #NorthKorea from firing first.
17/x
That keeps us in a tense contest of who can fire more missiles into the water or fly planes over things.
18/x
#NorthKorea
Any improvement to the #NorthKorea situation requires steady diplomacy and economic pressure from a united international community.
19/x
No matter where this goes, the United States is in a better position with local allies, namely #SouthKorea and #Japan.
#NorthKoreaNukes
20/x
Pushing #SouthKorea away, Trump weakens America's position. And with his bluster, Trump plays into Kim's hand.
#NorthKorea
21/x
The president says #NorthKorea "only understands one thing."
He speaks in cliches, ignoring that threats help, rather than hurt Kim.
22/x
All Trump's doing is creating uncertainty, increasing the chances miscalculation or accident will cause a war no one wants
#NorthKorea
(END)
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