#NorthKorea has a nuclear deterrent. No one wanted it to get here, but it has, and pretending otherwise doesn't help.
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Nuke-tipped missiles that can hit US would finalize
#NorthKorea's deterrent. But they can already do enough that US won't strike first. 3/xShow this thread -
Trump's bluster gives Kim the enemy he wants.
#NorthKorea's leader can publicly defy the US, giving him stature. 4/xhttps://arcdigital.media/dont-worry-too-much-about-the-trump-kim-war-of-words-d8a77c0ced63 …Show this thread -
The US won't fire first, but will respond with overwhelming force. But thanks to Trump more of the world will blame the US if it happens 5/x
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A few weeks ago, Trump supporters said the president's tough rhetoric got Kim to back down. How's that looking now?
#NorthKoreaNukes 6/xShow this thread -
Now, Trump's attacks on
#SouthKorea over trade and "appeasement" alienate a valuable ally, while doing nothing to help with#NorthKorea. 7/xShow this thread -
His threat to cut all trade with anyone who trades with
#NorthKorea is an obvious bluff. 8/xShow this thread -
Stop trade with China and stock markets--one of Trump's favorite measurements of his performance--would crash. 9/xhttps://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/891343645529567232?lang=en …
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America would plunge into recession. Cutting trade with
#China over the#NorthKorea issue is Mutual Assured Economic Destruction. 10/xShow this thread -
Cutting off trade with China is a guy-at-the-end-of-the-bar idea. Might sound good for a sec, but gets dumber when you think about it. 11/x
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-China doesn't want a trade war. They'll give in! -They know the US doesn't want a trade war. They'll call the bluff.
#NorthKorea 12/xShow this thread -
If Trump's dumb/crazy enough to do it, China would rather take the pain than capitulate. Giving in would just invite more demands. 13/x
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To be clear: Trump's approach to
#NorthKorea is terrible, but that doesn't mean there's a clear solution he's ignoring#NorthKoreaNukes 14/xShow this thread -
As I explained in this article, the US and allies have tried many approaches to
#NorthKorea. None solved it. 15/xhttps://medium.com/@nicholasgrossman/how-do-you-solve-a-problem-north-korea-69175f68b8de …Show this thread -
But, even though we can't solve it, we can still make it better or worse.
#NorthKoreaNukes 16/xShow this thread -
A credible threat of overwhelming force in response to an attack prevents
#NorthKorea from firing first. 17/xShow this thread -
That keeps us in a tense contest of who can fire more missiles into the water or fly planes over things. 18/x
#NorthKoreaShow this thread -
Any improvement to the
#NorthKorea situation requires steady diplomacy and economic pressure from a united international community. 19/xShow this thread -
No matter where this goes, the United States is in a better position with local allies, namely
#SouthKorea and#Japan.#NorthKoreaNukes 20/xShow this thread -
Pushing
#SouthKorea away, Trump weakens America's position. And with his bluster, Trump plays into Kim's hand.#NorthKorea 21/xShow this thread -
The president says
#NorthKorea "only understands one thing." He speaks in cliches, ignoring that threats help, rather than hurt Kim. 22/xShow this thread -
All Trump's doing is creating uncertainty, increasing the chances miscalculation or accident will cause a war no one wants
#NorthKorea (END)Show this thread
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