Early analysis of #Barcelona terrorist attack that killed at least 13.
Who, why, and what it means.
(THREAD)
#BarcelonaTerrorAttackpic.twitter.com/cnvOt9VFrO
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Self-starters usually do less damage (130 dead in Paris), but as the #BarcelonaTerrorAttack shows, they're still pretty devastating.
11/x
However, it's still early, and it's possible others were involved. Also, the driver is still at large.
#Barcelona
12/x
Authorities suspect an explosion in Alcanar (about 100km from #Barcelona) may be linked.
#BarcelonaTerroristAttack
13/xpic.twitter.com/ISEKTosL3K
But they found 20 gas canisters, which is hardly a sophisticated explosive. If linked, it supports self-starter theory.
#Barcelona
14/x
Who did it and how linked they were to #ISIS will become clearer. But this we know: vehicle attacks are very hard to stop.
#Barcelona
15/x
My analysis of the Westminster vehicle attack (March 2016) applies to the #BarcelonaTerroristAttack as well.
https://arcdigital.media/5-thoughts-on-the-westminster-attack-aeb29d4f9d85 …
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Vehicles will drive near pedestrians in cities. No way around it, and we wouldn't want to stop normal urban activity either.
#Barcelona
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If someone really wants to hit pedestrians on purpose, they will have the opportunity.
#BarcelonaTerrorAttack
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Alert security services can respond quickly, but not before terrorists can do some damage.
#BarcelonaTerroristAttack
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I wish I could end on a more positive note, telling you how tragedies like the #BarcelonaTerrorAttack can be averted. But I can't.
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The reasons why #terrorist groups and self-starters want to use violence are big, complicated, and not about to go away.
#Barcelona
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And vehicle attacks are an effective tactic that even prepared security services will have trouble stopping.
#BarcelonaTerroristAttack
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Intelligence can help anticipate, and alert police and individuals can help minimize the damage. But some will get through.
#Barcelona
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Unfortunately, this reality won't stop some people, especially politicians, from promising easy solutions.
#BarcelonaTerrorAttack
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But we can sympathize with victims and reject those who try to use the #BarcelonaTerroristAttack to advance their preconceived agendas
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UPDATE 1: Spanish police killed 5 in Cambrils attempting a vehicle attack, who they're treating as connected to the #BarcelonaTerrorAttack.
UPDATE 2: Reports say the 5 dead attackers were wearing explosive belts, casting doubt on the theory that the #BarcelonaAttack was amateur.
UPDATE 3: Explosive belts usually indicate professional operations, or at least connection to a terrorist group.
#BarcelonaTerroristAttack
UPDATE 4: Explosive belts require a skilled bomb maker. They're not the sort of thing an amateur throws together with household material.
UPDATE 5: This also means it was very fortunate the Cambrils attack didn't kill anyone. The police did well.
#BarcelonaTerroristAttack
UPDATE 6: It's odd one operative, without explosives, would attack a major location while 5 with explosives would target one less prominent.
UPDATE 7: But, if Cambrils proves connected to #Barcelona, we're looking at a cell, quite possibly with one or more #ISIS members.
UPDATE 8: The cell that attacked Paris and Brussels was an #ISIS operative who recruited locals, and these attacks could be similar.
UPDATE 9: In some sense, that's good news, because it becomes an intelligence/law enforcement challenge.
#BarcelonaTerroristAttack
UPDATE 10: Random person with a vehicle is nearly impossible to anticipate, but a cell can be tracked and traced.
#BarcelonaTerroristAttack
UPDATE 11: And professional terrorist operatives recruiting locals can be countered with intel sources and addressing sociopolitical issues.
NEW UPDATE 1: Cambrils attackers' suicide belts were fake. That's more evidence #Barcelona was amateur, not #ISIS pros.
(h/t @brienbarnett)
NEW UPDATE 2: By contrast, Paris attackers wore real suicide vests into the Bataclan concert hall. Two detonated.
#BarcelonaTerroristAttack
NEW UPDATE 3: Fake suicide belts is a risky strategy. Intimidates bystanders, but says arrest impossible. Security forces shoot-to-kill.
NEW UPDATE 4: There's also a wannabe aspect to it. As if they were playing jihadist dress up.
#BarcelonaTerroristAttack
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