Early analysis of #Barcelona terrorist attack that killed at least 13.
Who, why, and what it means.
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#BarcelonaTerrorAttackpic.twitter.com/cnvOt9VFrO
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By contrast, professional operatives, trained and deployed by terrorist groups, often coordinate assaults, like Paris 2015.
#Barcelona
5/x
Explosives are another sign that an attacker is a pro, or at least linked to some, like Brussels or Manchester.
#Barcelona
6/x
But not always. Boston Marathon attackers were self-starters, and built their own bombs using information found online.
#Barcelona
7/x
#ISIS claimed #Barcelona attacker "carried out the operation in response to calls for targeting coalition states."
8/x
That further suggests self-starter. #ISIS has tried to inspire sympathizers to launch their own attacks.
#BarcelonaTerrorAttack
9/x
Pros can be tracked as they travel or communicate online, but self-starters (eg San Bernardino) are very hard to anticipate.
#Barcelona
10/x
Self-starters usually do less damage (130 dead in Paris), but as the #BarcelonaTerrorAttack shows, they're still pretty devastating.
11/x
However, it's still early, and it's possible others were involved. Also, the driver is still at large.
#Barcelona
12/x
Authorities suspect an explosion in Alcanar (about 100km from #Barcelona) may be linked.
#BarcelonaTerroristAttack
13/xpic.twitter.com/ISEKTosL3K
But they found 20 gas canisters, which is hardly a sophisticated explosive. If linked, it supports self-starter theory.
#Barcelona
14/x
Who did it and how linked they were to #ISIS will become clearer. But this we know: vehicle attacks are very hard to stop.
#Barcelona
15/x
My analysis of the Westminster vehicle attack (March 2016) applies to the #BarcelonaTerroristAttack as well.
https://arcdigital.media/5-thoughts-on-the-westminster-attack-aeb29d4f9d85 …
16/x
Vehicles will drive near pedestrians in cities. No way around it, and we wouldn't want to stop normal urban activity either.
#Barcelona
17/x
If someone really wants to hit pedestrians on purpose, they will have the opportunity.
#BarcelonaTerrorAttack
18/x
Alert security services can respond quickly, but not before terrorists can do some damage.
#BarcelonaTerroristAttack
19/x
I wish I could end on a more positive note, telling you how tragedies like the #BarcelonaTerrorAttack can be averted. But I can't.
20/x
The reasons why #terrorist groups and self-starters want to use violence are big, complicated, and not about to go away.
#Barcelona
21/x
And vehicle attacks are an effective tactic that even prepared security services will have trouble stopping.
#BarcelonaTerroristAttack
22/x
Intelligence can help anticipate, and alert police and individuals can help minimize the damage. But some will get through.
#Barcelona
23/x
Unfortunately, this reality won't stop some people, especially politicians, from promising easy solutions.
#BarcelonaTerrorAttack
24/x
But we can sympathize with victims and reject those who try to use the #BarcelonaTerroristAttack to advance their preconceived agendas
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UPDATE 1: Spanish police killed 5 in Cambrils attempting a vehicle attack, who they're treating as connected to the #BarcelonaTerrorAttack.
UPDATE 2: Reports say the 5 dead attackers were wearing explosive belts, casting doubt on the theory that the #BarcelonaAttack was amateur.
UPDATE 3: Explosive belts usually indicate professional operations, or at least connection to a terrorist group.
#BarcelonaTerroristAttack
UPDATE 4: Explosive belts require a skilled bomb maker. They're not the sort of thing an amateur throws together with household material.
UPDATE 5: This also means it was very fortunate the Cambrils attack didn't kill anyone. The police did well.
#BarcelonaTerroristAttack
UPDATE 6: It's odd one operative, without explosives, would attack a major location while 5 with explosives would target one less prominent.
UPDATE 7: But, if Cambrils proves connected to #Barcelona, we're looking at a cell, quite possibly with one or more #ISIS members.
UPDATE 8: The cell that attacked Paris and Brussels was an #ISIS operative who recruited locals, and these attacks could be similar.
UPDATE 9: In some sense, that's good news, because it becomes an intelligence/law enforcement challenge.
#BarcelonaTerroristAttack
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