I called it in May, and wondered why more people weren't talking about it.
#Trumpcare can't pass reconciliation.https://twitter.com/NGrossman81/status/861202391286382593 …
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That's yet another blow to Republicans' #healthcare plans. And it shows why #Obamacare was an impressive political achievement. 3/x
The #ACA got 60 votes, and changed regulations, as well as spending. That makes it hard to undo (for better or worse). 4/x
#Trumpcare
Republicans can repeal #Obamacare's spending provisions with 50 (+VP tiebreak), but can't replace (or change) the regulations
5/x
#Trumpcare
They could change reconciliation rules. But if they can't get 50 for #BCRA, they won't get 50 to change the rules to pass it.
6/x
#Trumpcare
That means the only options are:
1) Repeal subsidies, taxes, and individual mandate (a tax according to Supreme Court)
7/x
#Trumpcare
That would crash the individual #healthcare market, causing premiums to spike, and millions to lose insurance.
8/x
#Trumpcare
Option 2: work with Democrats (sacrilege!) to improve #Obamacare.
But that would anger their base. And keep the #ACA's taxes.
9/x
#Trumpcarepic.twitter.com/ChTJVHLDiO
#McConnell's threatening to hold vote anyway. Protects him from conservatives, & forces moderates to block #ObamacareRepeal.
10/x
#Trumpcare
#Trump's threatening to "let #Obamacare fail" (which means sabotage it).
11/x
#Trumpcarehttp://www.thedailybeast.com/team-trump-used-obamacare-money-to-run-ads-against-it …
The idea is Democrats will care about Americans losing insurance, and agree to Republicans' #Trumpcare plans as better than nothing.
12/x
But that's gambling that:
1) Voters won't blame the party in power
2) Democrats will save Trump and Republicans politically
13/x
#Trumpcare
Senate reconciliation rules mean Republicans' #healthcare plans are stuck. Can't do it with 50 votes. No way to 60.
14/x
#Trumpcare
Democrats won't mind Republicans fighting each other over #Obamacare repeal that can't pass the Senate.
15/x
#Trumpcare
Dems would prefer to improve #ACA. But, barring that, won't complain about Republicans running out the clock with #Trumpcare fails.
16/16
They can pull the items that the parliamentarian flagged and still vote on the BCRA. Don't get comfortable yet.
That's repeal taxes/subsidies with no replacement, crashing the market (Option 1 below). Not impossible, but the votes aren't there (so far)
Not necessarily. They can pull the problematic provisions like PP defunding from BCRA.
Mitchy screwed the pooch by opting for Reconciliation. Seriously, they had 7 years and a majority in both houses, & still screwed it up.
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