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NGrossman81's profile
Nicholas Grossman
Nicholas Grossman
Nicholas Grossman
@NGrossman81

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Nicholas Grossman

@NGrossman81

International Relations prof at U. Illinois. Senior Editor @ArcDigi. Author “Drones and Terrorism.” Politics, national security, and occasional nerdery.

amazon.com/Drones-Terrori…
Joined April 2015

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    1. Paul Manata‏ @MaulPanata Sep 21
      Replying to @NGrossman81 @ArcDigi @NateSilver538

      Damaging legitimacy is very small. They said that with Thomas too. Risk he’s subject to bribes is insignificant. The risks associated w/ dropping him based on a clear political hit job are greater than the above, too many to list.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    2. Nicholas Grossman‏ @NGrossman81 Sep 21
      Replying to @MaulPanata @ArcDigi @NateSilver538

      I think you're underestimating how much has changed since Thomas. Not least because of Garland. You also seem to be assuming that Kavanaugh is definitely innocent, when the only honest answer is don't know. If he did it, it's not a hit job, but a genuine accusation.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    3. Paul Manata‏ @MaulPanata Sep 21
      Replying to @NGrossman81 @ArcDigi @NateSilver538

      Haha you underestimated my move ;). I made the point about the risk of dems using dirty tricks like this to derail any nom. You said “I heard that about Thomas.” Right, so I put my concern back on the table. On Kav, I’m not sure you understand how weak “I don’t know” is.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    4. Nicholas Grossman‏ @NGrossman81 Sep 21
      Replying to @MaulPanata @ArcDigi @NateSilver538

      It's the only honest answer. How can you or I or any other outside observers know with anything approaching certainty?

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    5. Paul Manata‏ @MaulPanata Sep 21
      Replying to @NGrossman81 @ArcDigi @NateSilver538

      We know very little “approaching certainty.” So that’s uninteresting. In terms of probabilities, I put it very low. But if “knowing approaching certainty” is your standard, then guess what, you don’t know if Pizzagate is false. lol

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    6. Nicholas Grossman‏ @NGrossman81 Sep 21
      Replying to @MaulPanata @ArcDigi @NateSilver538

      In terms of probabilities that Blasey Ford is telling the truth, you think it's very low? Do I understand that correctly?

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    7. Paul Manata‏ @MaulPanata Sep 21
      Replying to @NGrossman81 @ArcDigi @NateSilver538

      Yes.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    8. Nicholas Grossman‏ @NGrossman81 Sep 21
      Replying to @MaulPanata @ArcDigi @NateSilver538

      Then I think we've reached agree-to-disagree territory. But I'm curious, why do you think that? Do you think she made it up, or just that she's mistaken? Based on what?

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    9. Paul Manata‏ @MaulPanata Sep 21
      Replying to @NGrossman81 @ArcDigi @NateSilver538

      Yes, we may be. But it’s interesting because I think your post isn’t *really* about risk, but value weighting or prioritizing. So I don’t think your standard works as s way forward. Maybe someplace I can lay out my reasons but would take more than one tweet

      2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
    10. Nicholas Grossman‏ @NGrossman81 Sep 21
      Replying to @MaulPanata @ArcDigi @NateSilver538

      That's fair. I meant the NatSec comparison as an analogy, not an identical comparison.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      Nicholas Grossman‏ @NGrossman81 Sep 21
      Replying to @NGrossman81 @MaulPanata and

      And, just in case you don't know, we're happy to publish stuff in Arc that disagrees with one of the editors (provided it meets the usual standards of reason, evidence, and quality, of course).

      9:26 AM - 21 Sep 2018 from Urbana, IL
      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        1. Paul Manata‏ @MaulPanata Sep 21
          Replying to @NGrossman81 @ArcDigi @NateSilver538

          Yes, I saw that with the recent relativism piece :)

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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