Not getting on the Supreme Court isn’t a punishment. If Kavanaugh withdraws or gets voted down, he won’t be thrown in jail or even fined. Treating Christine Blasey Ford's accusation of sexual assault like a court case applies the wrong standard. My latest:https://arcdigital.media/everyones-applying-the-wrong-standard-to-kavanaugh-s-nomination-9b5859209039?source=friends_link&sk=4973bf2f07aec042d2ede336c92a5dca …
It's the only honest answer. How can you or I or any other outside observers know with anything approaching certainty?
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We know very little “approaching certainty.” So that’s uninteresting. In terms of probabilities, I put it very low. But if “knowing approaching certainty” is your standard, then guess what, you don’t know if Pizzagate is false. lol
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In terms of probabilities that Blasey Ford is telling the truth, you think it's very low? Do I understand that correctly?
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Then I think we've reached agree-to-disagree territory. But I'm curious, why do you think that? Do you think she made it up, or just that she's mistaken? Based on what?
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Yes, we may be. But it’s interesting because I think your post isn’t *really* about risk, but value weighting or prioritizing. So I don’t think your standard works as s way forward. Maybe someplace I can lay out my reasons but would take more than one tweet
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That's fair. I meant the NatSec comparison as an analogy, not an identical comparison.
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And, just in case you don't know, we're happy to publish stuff in Arc that disagrees with one of the editors (provided it meets the usual standards of reason, evidence, and quality, of course).
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Yes, I saw that with the recent relativism piece :)
End of conversation
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