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NGrossman81's profile
Nicholas Grossman
Nicholas Grossman
Nicholas Grossman
@NGrossman81

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Nicholas Grossman

@NGrossman81

International Relations prof at U. Illinois. Senior Editor @ArcDigi. Author “Drones and Terrorism.” Politics, national security, and occasional nerdery.

amazon.com/Drones-Terrori…
Joined April 2015

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    1. Nicholas Grossman‏ @NGrossman81 Sep 18

      Not getting on the Supreme Court isn’t a punishment. If Kavanaugh withdraws or gets voted down, he won’t be thrown in jail or even fined. Treating Christine Blasey Ford's accusation of sexual assault like a court case applies the wrong standard. My latest:https://arcdigital.media/everyones-applying-the-wrong-standard-to-kavanaugh-s-nomination-9b5859209039?source=friends_link&sk=4973bf2f07aec042d2ede336c92a5dca …

      8 replies 18 retweets 44 likes
    2. Paul Manata‏ @MaulPanata Sep 20
      Replying to @NGrossman81 @ArcDigi

      Contrary to the conventional wisdom I think there *is* some chance that if the GOP doesn't get Kavanaugh, it doesn't get a conservative justice at all. They're running out of time to confirm someone other than Kavanaugh pre-midterms and there's a ~30% chance Dems win the Senate.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    3. Paul Manata‏ @MaulPanata Sep 20
      Replying to @MaulPanata @NGrossman81 @ArcDigi

      ^ @NateSilver538. evidence against Grossman’s piece.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    4. Nicholas Grossman‏ @NGrossman81 Sep 21
      Replying to @MaulPanata @ArcDigi @NateSilver538

      The longer they wait, the lower the chances. But there's also the lame duck session. So, broad estimate: 50% of confirmation before election. 70% of holding Senate If not, 33% of lame duck confirmation. That's 90-10. Really good odds. First number decreases the longer they wait.

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    5. Nicholas Grossman‏ @NGrossman81 Sep 21
      Replying to @NGrossman81 @MaulPanata and

      What are the chances Kavanaugh gets voted down? If it's greater than 10%, then, using my estimate, and looking exclusively at the question of confirming a conservative justice, sticking with Kavanaugh is riskier than replacing him quickly.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    6. Paul Manata‏ @MaulPanata Sep 21
      Replying to @NGrossman81 @ArcDigi @NateSilver538

      If that were the *only* risk factor, maybe. It’s not.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    7. Nicholas Grossman‏ @NGrossman81 Sep 21
      Replying to @MaulPanata @ArcDigi @NateSilver538

      In my article, I was primarily thinking from a national perspective. Risks of damaging SCOTUS legitimacy, risks he’s subject to blackmail, etc. Other possible noms don’t have those. If you mean risks GOP don’t get a justice, it’s small if they act fast, and I care less about that

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    8. Paul Manata‏ @MaulPanata Sep 21
      Replying to @NGrossman81 @ArcDigi @NateSilver538

      Damaging legitimacy is very small. They said that with Thomas too. Risk he’s subject to bribes is insignificant. The risks associated w/ dropping him based on a clear political hit job are greater than the above, too many to list.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      Nicholas Grossman‏ @NGrossman81 Sep 21
      Replying to @MaulPanata @ArcDigi @NateSilver538

      I think you're underestimating how much has changed since Thomas. Not least because of Garland. You also seem to be assuming that Kavanaugh is definitely innocent, when the only honest answer is don't know. If he did it, it's not a hit job, but a genuine accusation.

      7:32 AM - 21 Sep 2018 from Urbana, IL
      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Paul Manata‏ @MaulPanata Sep 21
          Replying to @NGrossman81 @ArcDigi @NateSilver538

          Haha you underestimated my move ;). I made the point about the risk of dems using dirty tricks like this to derail any nom. You said “I heard that about Thomas.” Right, so I put my concern back on the table. On Kav, I’m not sure you understand how weak “I don’t know” is.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Nicholas Grossman‏ @NGrossman81 Sep 21
          Replying to @MaulPanata @ArcDigi @NateSilver538

          It's the only honest answer. How can you or I or any other outside observers know with anything approaching certainty?

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. Paul Manata‏ @MaulPanata Sep 21
          Replying to @NGrossman81 @ArcDigi @NateSilver538

          We know very little “approaching certainty.” So that’s uninteresting. In terms of probabilities, I put it very low. But if “knowing approaching certainty” is your standard, then guess what, you don’t know if Pizzagate is false. lol

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        5. Nicholas Grossman‏ @NGrossman81 Sep 21
          Replying to @MaulPanata @ArcDigi @NateSilver538

          In terms of probabilities that Blasey Ford is telling the truth, you think it's very low? Do I understand that correctly?

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        6. Paul Manata‏ @MaulPanata Sep 21
          Replying to @NGrossman81 @ArcDigi @NateSilver538

          Yes.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        7. Nicholas Grossman‏ @NGrossman81 Sep 21
          Replying to @MaulPanata @ArcDigi @NateSilver538

          Then I think we've reached agree-to-disagree territory. But I'm curious, why do you think that? Do you think she made it up, or just that she's mistaken? Based on what?

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        8. Paul Manata‏ @MaulPanata Sep 21
          Replying to @NGrossman81 @ArcDigi @NateSilver538

          Yes, we may be. But it’s interesting because I think your post isn’t *really* about risk, but value weighting or prioritizing. So I don’t think your standard works as s way forward. Maybe someplace I can lay out my reasons but would take more than one tweet

          2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        9. Nicholas Grossman‏ @NGrossman81 Sep 21
          Replying to @MaulPanata @ArcDigi @NateSilver538

          That's fair. I meant the NatSec comparison as an analogy, not an identical comparison.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
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