1) They're afraid they can't get a new candidate through in time for November. 2) They're afraid withdrawing will lead to even more depressed turnout. 3) Many are afraid of setting a precedent of "guilty until proven innocent" based on the media rather than a hearing.https://twitter.com/NGrossman81/status/1043135053159649280 …
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Also, note that those three possibilities all fit within the partisan fight framework. 1) Don't let Dems delay! 2) Don't let Dems win in November! 3) Don't let Dems see that accusing nominees can sink their chances!
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On #3, I honestly don't get why no one is pointing out how Gorsuch had none of these issues at a time when the bitter partisan wounds were even more raw (immediate post-election). Seems somewhat relevant.
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I'm pointing that out constantly. Also, if Democrats were going to make up sexual assault allegations against political opponents, they would've gone after McConnell, Ryan, and others. It's so cynical, so nonsensical, that it's hard to believe people believe it.
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I don't get why he was chosen in the first place, really. A strong legal mind, sure, and Kennedy vouched for him but even McC said he would cause problems.
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My guess is he's the one most likely to rule that the president can't be subpoenaed, or otherwise subject to the law.
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On No. 1, it is question of odds. What is more likely, that they will be able to get another nominee in under the wire, or that Kavanaugh will get voted down?
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At this point? Voted down given all the candidate's problems. Gorsuch at least got some D support. K will be straight party-line at best.
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I agree. But you know the Dems will kick and scream about how rushed the process is with the new nominee. I think that is the reason they are so desparate to get the hearing in on Monday. They want the chance to put in another nominee if the hearing goes badly.
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Let them complain. But I want someone who will at least be a Gorsuch - strongly conservative but clean personally. I think even Dems would prefer that to this.
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Maybe a few hyper-partisan Democrats would prefer someone they can attack more easily. But that's incredibly cynical, bad for the country, and should be dismissed out of hand.
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People like Hirono are not helping, but I agree. There's still a list. Pick a name out of a hat if you have to.
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I think they're betting hard that he won't get voted down. Which, I think they're still on track to being right, though others disagree. They are hedging a bit by making sure to avoid delay so that they can go to Plan B if they have to.
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But I think the main risk with senators yanking Kavanaugh is that they won't have Trump's cooperation to fast-track a replacement. He'd likely be peeved, he doesn't care as much as they do, and defending people accused of sexual misconduct is something he actually believes in.
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That's a fair point. White House-Congress dysfunction could make it hard. Though if they're not already planning another nominee as a contingency, they're even worse at this than I thought.
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#3 is guaranteed if Dems get away with it this time.
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The whole “legitimacy of future rulings” business is crap. There’s only one ruling anyone cares about. The rest will be forgotten.
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