Not getting on the Supreme Court isn’t a punishment. If Kavanaugh withdraws or gets voted down, he won’t be thrown in jail or even fined. Treating Christine Blasey Ford's accusation of sexual assault like a court case applies the wrong standard. My latest:https://arcdigital.media/everyones-applying-the-wrong-standard-to-kavanaugh-s-nomination-9b5859209039?source=friends_link&sk=4973bf2f07aec042d2ede336c92a5dca …
The longer they wait, the lower the chances. But there's also the lame duck session. So, broad estimate: 50% of confirmation before election. 70% of holding Senate If not, 33% of lame duck confirmation. That's 90-10. Really good odds. First number decreases the longer they wait.
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What are the chances Kavanaugh gets voted down? If it's greater than 10%, then, using my estimate, and looking exclusively at the question of confirming a conservative justice, sticking with Kavanaugh is riskier than replacing him quickly.
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If that were the *only* risk factor, maybe. It’s not.
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In my article, I was primarily thinking from a national perspective. Risks of damaging SCOTUS legitimacy, risks he’s subject to blackmail, etc. Other possible noms don’t have those. If you mean risks GOP don’t get a justice, it’s small if they act fast, and I care less about that
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Damaging legitimacy is very small. They said that with Thomas too. Risk he’s subject to bribes is insignificant. The risks associated w/ dropping him based on a clear political hit job are greater than the above, too many to list.
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I think you're underestimating how much has changed since Thomas. Not least because of Garland. You also seem to be assuming that Kavanaugh is definitely innocent, when the only honest answer is don't know. If he did it, it's not a hit job, but a genuine accusation.
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Haha you underestimated my move ;). I made the point about the risk of dems using dirty tricks like this to derail any nom. You said “I heard that about Thomas.” Right, so I put my concern back on the table. On Kav, I’m not sure you understand how weak “I don’t know” is.
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It's the only honest answer. How can you or I or any other outside observers know with anything approaching certainty?
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We know very little “approaching certainty.” So that’s uninteresting. In terms of probabilities, I put it very low. But if “knowing approaching certainty” is your standard, then guess what, you don’t know if Pizzagate is false. lol
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I think I’m not making the point well: these are risks. Your piece did not consider them, but should have given the way you framed your argument.
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