Contrary to the conventional wisdom I think there *is* some chance that if the GOP doesn't get Kavanaugh, it doesn't get a conservative justice at all. They're running out of time to confirm someone other than Kavanaugh pre-midterms and there's a ~30% chance Dems win the Senate.
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@NateSilver538. evidence against Grossman’s piece. -
The longer they wait, the lower the chances. But there's also the lame duck session. So, broad estimate: 50% of confirmation before election. 70% of holding Senate If not, 33% of lame duck confirmation. That's 90-10. Really good odds. First number decreases the longer they wait.
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What are the chances Kavanaugh gets voted down? If it's greater than 10%, then, using my estimate, and looking exclusively at the question of confirming a conservative justice, sticking with Kavanaugh is riskier than replacing him quickly.
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If that were the *only* risk factor, maybe. It’s not.
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In my article, I was primarily thinking from a national perspective. Risks of damaging SCOTUS legitimacy, risks he’s subject to blackmail, etc. Other possible noms don’t have those. If you mean risks GOP don’t get a justice, it’s small if they act fast, and I care less about that
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Damaging legitimacy is very small. They said that with Thomas too. Risk he’s subject to bribes is insignificant. The risks associated w/ dropping him based on a clear political hit job are greater than the above, too many to list.
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I think you're underestimating how much has changed since Thomas. Not least because of Garland. You also seem to be assuming that Kavanaugh is definitely innocent, when the only honest answer is don't know. If he did it, it's not a hit job, but a genuine accusation.
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This is impeccable work. Thank you.
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Thanks. Glad to hear you liked it.
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Wrong. Here's a test: Next time you're up for a job or promotion I'll pay $5K to anyone who can "credibly accuse" you of rape. When you're denied it you report back and tell us whether it was in fact a punishment.
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The thing about tests is that you kinda need to, you know... run them. This isn't a test - it's a hypothetical. One that you just made up.
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No, I was proposing we actually run it. We agree on an escrow service now When he's up for a job I deposit the money If someone comes forward they claim it Straightforward.
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In this idea of yours, am I up for a job as important to the country as Supreme Court justice? If I don't get the job, will I retain a prominent, powerful, well-paying position, like D.C. Circuit judge? If not, there are some big flaws in your experiment.
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Also, if it's really just about the allegations, why does he need to be up for promotion? You've got the 5k, and producing an allegation is supposedly easy (your stance, not mine). So let's see it. Show, don't tell.
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He didn't claim firing wasn't a punishment, just non-advancement. It wouldn't be a good test (or fair) to risk his firing.
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Ah good point, good point. So we'll wait for the right opportunity then. How's that escrow coming along? I can help if necessary.
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Any updates? No? Nothing?
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1/ Evidence is even weaker than you suggest. Kav not named in therapist notes. Regarding lie detector, we have only been told she was being truthful when “she said the administer’s summary was accurate.” What’s the context of the summary? Kav named? Etc
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2/ Tamler Sommers has a new book on honor, points out our county too risk averse, argues against this reasoning. Would be interesting to juxtapose that with your piece assuming Western individualist standards. Kav’s honor is a much bigger deal on this approach than you suggest.
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3/ It’s not obvious that if he withdraws then it’s over. Many leftists have argued that they’ll use this to remove him from circuit court too. You underestimate the opposition
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4/ Back to risk assessment: you left out risk of letting unconfirmed accusation derail any conservative nomination moving forward. If this tactic proves successful, what’s the risk that it becomes a new tool in the age of
#metoo
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I don't buy this argument. Heard the same thing after the Clarence Thomas hearings. Then saw no accusation of sexual harassment or any other personal misconduct levied against Roberts, Alito, or Gorsuch. Maybe the relevant factor is the nominee, not the party doing the nominating
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Also, your less risky alternatives haven’t been through the process. We can be assured Barrett or Thapar would be equally savaged. Kav made it through 6, SIX, FBI background checks. My friend in FBI. They called me and about 30 ppl from high school and asked a ton of qs.
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