Syrian government forces, backed by Russia, have begun operations in Idlib providence. About 3 million people there, many displaced from other parts of Syria by the war. Weirdly, this isn't a surprise. They basically announced it, on Twitter and elsewhere. But in an odd way. 1/x
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Yesterday, into that info environment flooded with Syrian/Russian propaganda, dropped this: It's specific, anticipating an attack in Idlib, and written in a voice that does not sound like the president himself. I wasn't sure what to make of it. 4/xhttps://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1036740691211284480 …
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Trump preemptively criticizes attack on Idlib--though this probably came from the Pentagon more than POTUS--and blames both Russia and Iran. After last chem attack, Trump ordered airstrikes against Syria. It was a pinprick. At best sent a message (that's now being ignored). 5/x
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Assad/Russia/Iran claim they're fighting al Qaeda (al Nusra, HTS) in Idlib, but no independent analysts believe them. Assad's plan since the beginning has been to attack non-jihadist rebels, trying to force the world into "me or the terrorists." It's mostly worked. 6/x
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Idlib is last main non-jihadist rebel stronghold. Expect a massacre, possibly including chemical weapons, as the regime seeks to break the rebels' will. US might respond with airstrikes, but they will surely be limited. And the info war element will keep playing out online. (END)
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