There's no telling. We can only know what happened in this universe, and in this universe Reid (and Schumer) made abolishing the filibuster for SCOTUS nominees inevitable. Now, if Dems don't filibuster last year, does McConnell get the votes to do it for Kavanaugh? I'm dubious.
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Inevitable? Nonsense. Everyone's responsible for their own decisions, including each escalation in the judicial confirmation wars. I've heard the same argument from would-be court packers. No choice after what Republicans did to Garland. Of course there's a choice.
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Of course it was inevitable. It became so the moment Schumer capitulated to "the resistance" and filibustered Gorsuch. Reid set the precedent. Precedents are there to be applied.
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Reid was just following the McConnell precedent of filibustering every Obama nom and refusing to deal when threatened with nuclear option. When Dems were threatened with it, they cut a deal and confirmed some Bush noms Can always roll the calendar back, blame others See my point?
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He may not have let them, but it's doubtful he would've had the votes to go nuclear on the filibuster.
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We can't know for sure, of course. But if Dems tried to keep the seat open indefinitely, filibustering anyone Trump nominated, I'd doubt GOP would've just let it go. One reason we know this: GOP threatened nuclear option last time Dems tried mass filibusters, and Dems cut a deal
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Unfortunately, neither of us can predict a hypothetical world's events. And the Dems didn't cut a deal. The Gang of 14 did. And part of the deal entailed killing a few nominations in exchange for confirming others. So it wasn't really the best deal from the GOP's POV.
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