Since POTUS is busy lying about NAFTA costing the US "thousands of businesses and millions of jobs," I'd like to remind everyone the real cause of manufacturing job loss is automation, not trade. Harder to demagogue, but ultimately a bigger problem. Check out this graph: 1/x
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Zoom in on 1990s, from the start of NAFTA through the early 2000s recession (1994-2001). Manufacturing employment (blue) increases slightly, while manufacturing output (red) rises sharply. If NAFTA killed businesses and jobs, both of those would've gone down. 3/xpic.twitter.com/42HrQmAubn
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Output rising while employment stays the same or decreases indicates increasing productivity, primarily due to robots. Trade isn't irrelevant. But about 88% of US manufacturing job losses in the 21st century come from automation, not trade. 4/x
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Red (output) and blue (employment) both drop during recessions (shaded areas). Notice how red bounces back, but blue stays low? That's mostly businesses firing people during recessions and replacing them with robots, rather than rehiring them or refilling their positions. 5/xpic.twitter.com/hYx1vaLqy7
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Automation is a long-term socioeconomic problem, with robots taking an increasing number of better-paying jobs. But robots are hard to scapegoat. Foreigners aren't. And no one prioritizes scapegoating foreigners over long-term economic development more than the president. (END)
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End of conversation
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“Over the long haul, clearly automation’s been much more important — it’s not even close"https://www.nytimes.com/2016/12/21/upshot/the-long-term-jobs-killer-is-not-china-its-automation.html …
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