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NGrossman81's profile
Nicholas Grossman
Nicholas Grossman
Nicholas Grossman
@NGrossman81

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Nicholas Grossman

@NGrossman81

International Relations prof at U. Illinois. Senior Editor @ArcDigi. Author “Drones and Terrorism.” Politics, national security, and occasional nerdery.

amazon.com/Drones-Terrori…
Joined April 2015

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    1. Rebecca Ingber‏ @becingber Aug 27

      Rebecca Ingber Retweeted EM Simpson

      Drone debates in legal circles focus so exclusively on the legality of strikes (incl where and against whom), that we never see this prior question discussed or answered. Are drone strike assassinations even plausibly good policy?https://twitter.com/charlie_simpson/status/1033754542196908032 …

      Rebecca Ingber added,

      EM Simpson @charlie_simpson
      Pls let me know when this approach achieves the desired strategic effect. https://twitter.com/LucasFoxNews/status/1033734788723736576 …
      3 replies 2 retweets 5 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Nicholas Grossman‏ @NGrossman81 Aug 27
      Replying to @becingber

      I can answer this. Devoted a chapter of my book to it. (I'll make this brief) Research shows the drone campaign reduced insurgent capacity along Af-Pak border, though didn't eliminate it. Basically, strategy, bomb-making, etc. are uncommon skills. Those people hard to replace 1/x

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
    3. Nicholas Grossman‏ @NGrossman81 Aug 27
      Replying to @NGrossman81 @becingber

      Also disrupts communications, movement, and recruitment by increasing targeted group's paranoia. How did they find out who and where [recent drone strike victim] was? Good evidence that al Qaeda's operated less efficiently since drone campaign began. 2/x

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      Nicholas Grossman‏ @NGrossman81 Aug 27
      Replying to @NGrossman81 @becingber

      So on the question of whether drone strikes create more terrorists than they kill, the answer, at least in the short- to medium-term is no. Long-term, that's an open question. 3/x

      9:46 AM - 27 Aug 2018 from Urbana, IL
      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Nicholas Grossman‏ @NGrossman81 Aug 27
          Replying to @NGrossman81 @becingber

          However, drone strikes (or a broader targeted killing policy using other tools as well) cannot win conflicts on their own. And sometimes, killing a group's leader opens a path for a more effective leader to take their place (that happened with Hezbollah). 4/x

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Nicholas Grossman‏ @NGrossman81 Aug 27
          Replying to @NGrossman81 @becingber

          So drone strikes can't defeat a group, but they can weaken it. I'd call that a partial success, though devoid of a path to the long-term success that really matters. NatSec types make a crude analogy to mowing the lawn. It'll grow back, but there's still value in mowing. 5/5

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. Nicholas Grossman‏ @NGrossman81 Aug 27
          Replying to @NGrossman81 @becingber

          Also, @becingber, if you're curious, I followed you on recommendation from Hannah. We went to college together.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        5. End of conversation

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