It's crazy frustrating to figure out if there is anything other than "animal spirits" motivating business confidence. Hard to pinpoint which regulation was so crushing to businesses that they held back investment until a "business president" took over.
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I can't think of any particular repealed regulation that unleashed investment. The government passed a major debt-financed stimulus in 2017, which would provide a temp boost. Here's investment since 2009. Dip in 2016, but otherwise, 2017/18 on trend. Indicates no big change.pic.twitter.com/axvZii3JI1
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Right.. but the perception, as you noted, is that this great Obama regulatory/tax burden has been lifted.. hence small business confidence thru the roofhttps://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/20/small-business-confidence-hits-record-in-2018-after-tax-reform-win.html …
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That doesn't strike me as odd. Business confidence typically rises as the economy expands, and when that measure was taken, the government just passed a big tax cut. The word "regulation" doesn't appear in the article you posted.
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Sure.. that makes sense.. but even before the tax bill small business confidence saw a big uptick right after the election...https://smallbiztrends.com/2016/12/small-business-optimism-in-december-2016.html …
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Really, so reality isn’t real to you. Apparently you haven’t heard the personal stories of those affected positively or have any idea of what the unemployment numbers are right now in the moment.
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Here's a graph of unemployment starting in 2009. Do you see a big turnaround in 2017?pic.twitter.com/VRnecAocnN
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Yes, I do when you look at the numbers before 2016 through Obama years, they’re horrific.
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Under 5%, which the US hit in 2015, isn't horrific at all. Latest is 4%. Hard to say 5% is horrific and 4% is great. And the most important metric for evaluation is the trend. It's been steadily down since the Great Recession. The downward rate barely changed.
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Obama also inherited a recession economy, which when you have a low base you have no where to go but up, especially when you create false employment which adds to spending & GDP. Which he did.
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With each percentage point that unemployment decreased under Obama it was constantly “but the real unemployment rate is 20% because of actual labor participation”—i have not heard a mention of those people from righty pundits for a good year and a half now
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Here's labor participation rate. As you can see, it's steady since 2013 (ie no turnaround in 2017/18). Lower participation rate meaning unclear. More students, stay-at-home parents, fewer disabled people forced to work: not bad. Capable people unable/unwilling to find jobs: bad.pic.twitter.com/w5NqV4sB25
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Our truth-telling president told us that the unemployment rate near the end of the Obama presidency was over 40%, and in the first months of the trump presidency it was already under 4%. Trump is a genius, and a stable one too!
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And all it cost was a trillion dollars.
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Nice and succinct.
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I think the words you are looking for are "all economists are liars"
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Very true observation. But I think the biggest grift hiding in plain sight is that the GOP policies are all geared to short term wins. I hear many grudging concessios that the tax cut is "working." (Duh. Keynsian stimulus works.) Why so little discussion of long term?
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