Short-term econ numbers aren't a good gauge of presidential performance. Or even a good gauge of the economy, esp when there's reason for unusual short-term behavior. And yes, I wrote the same thing (on this very website) when Sept 2017 had the worst job growth numbers in years.
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Presidents don't control the economy. Often, they barely influence it. Bad Sept '17 job numbers were caused by weather. Hurricanes disrupted hiring, which, as predicted, rebounded afterwards. Oct '17 had best job growth of the year. Neither number said anything about Trump.
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Most likely cause of high Q2 GDP growth is businesses rushing to get ahead of the trade war. They moved decisions up, which likely means less growth in Q3/Q4. Weirdly, this is one of the few times it's the president's doing. But that doesn't mean tariffs are good for the economy.
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I know people want to treat politics like sports, and econ numbers provide a way to keep score. But quarterly GDP growth is a short-term snapshot. So is monthly job growth. And reading into daily stock market movements is worthless. Either way, says very little about POTUS. (END)
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