Telling people to shrug at threats against Iran because threats against North Korea didn't lead to war isn't a great take. But if you buy this, I argued Trump was bluffing during "fire and fury," and I'm telling you all to worry about him threatening Iran. https://arcdigital.media/dont-worry-too-much-about-the-trump-kim-war-of-words-d8a77c0ced63 …https://twitter.com/benshapiro/status/1021382583114797057 …
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-North Korea has nukes. Iran doesn't. -South Korea, Japan want diplomacy with North Korea. Saudi, Israel, UAE want conflict with Iran. -Northeast Asia stable. Middle East not. -Many in DC (in and out of administration) favor conflict with Iran. No equivalent with North Korea.
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Nicholas Grossman Retweeted David Leavitt
Insisting that Trump is threatening Iran just to distract from Russia is another popular take, and also wrong. Russia's important, but it's not the only thing. And the Trump admin's policy since the beginning has been to heighten confrontation with Iran.https://twitter.com/David_Leavitt/status/1021430078302048257 …
Nicholas Grossman added,
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-Trump gave a speech in Saudi Arabia blaming terrorism on Iran. -Supported blockade of Qatar, which has worked with Iran, even though Qatar hosts America's biggest Middle East airbase. -Scrapped JCPOA without a diplomatic strategy to keep Iran from restarting its nuclear program.
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Trump's threat against Iran isn't just words. It fits a long pattern of actions and personnel decisions (especially Bolton) that point towards the possibility he'll order an attack. Take it seriously. (END)
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Replying to @NGrossman81
Do you think he'll get congressional approval? I'm currently under-informed on the nature of police action vs full scale war.
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Replying to @YesterdawgLoL
Legally, under the War Powers Act, POTUS can order US forces to attack without Congressional approval. If Congress does not give approval within 60 days, all forces must withdraw and operations cease within 90 of the original action. 1/2
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Bush got Congressional approval before Iraq. Obama didn't before Libya. If Trump wants to attack, there's a good chance he'd just do it rather than ask Congress first. And, while Congress might decline to support starting a war, once one is underway the logic changes. 2/2
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