On one hand, this threat against Iran is like Trump's threats against North Korea, which led to him making concessions in exchange for nothing. On the other hand, I've argued for over a year that there are many signs the administration's lining up to fight Iran.https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1021234525626609666 …
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In March, I laid out signs pointing towards war with Iran, from Qatar Crisis to elevating Pompeo and Bolton. Since then there's been more, most notably scrapping JCPOA without a clear strategy to peacefully prevent Iran from restarting its nuclear program.https://arcdigital.media/donald-trump-is-going-to-bomb-iran-5f29632fb25d …
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I also predicted that Trump would try to take the North Korea issue off the table and pivot towards confronting Iran. While there are multiple possible explanations for POTUS declaring victory on North Korea despite obviously not achieving anything, my Iran theory is one of them.
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Trump ordering an on attack Iran is far from a sure thing. But there are enough signs that we should take the possibility seriously. The US should confront Iran, but war would not be a smart strategy. Then again, a smart strategy wouldn't have scrapped the nuclear deal. (END)
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Replying to @NGrossman81
A smart strategy would have been not to make a deal at all, & honestly what was that great “deal”? What did US get out of it!
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Replying to @knoxannie
That's a separate question. Trump came into office with the deal in place. Couldn't travel back in time and undo Obama's decision. Withdrawing freed Iran from its obligations, and the world blames America. Put the US in a worse position, without the leverage to get a better deal.
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Replying to @NGrossman81
Point taken, but the deal was only beneficial to Europe after we payed millions. There was no true reality that Iran was or ever would comply. EU knows this. I’d rather get out now & restratagize.
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Replying to @knoxannie @NGrossman81
They were complying, Trump’s own State Depr, Sec of Defense and Joint Chiefs of Staff all said as much.
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So did American, British, French, German, and Israeli intelligence.
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Replying to @NGrossman81 @knoxannie
Not to mention the IAEA, the international agency tasked with being the final word on this. It’s really only been Trump, even Iran hawks like Pompeo and Bolton have grudgingly admitted Iran’s complying, but then they’ve listed Iran’s *other* behavior as a reason to get out.
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