On one hand, this threat against Iran is like Trump's threats against North Korea, which led to him making concessions in exchange for nothing. On the other hand, I've argued for over a year that there are many signs the administration's lining up to fight Iran.https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1021234525626609666 …
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In March, I laid out signs pointing towards war with Iran, from Qatar Crisis to elevating Pompeo and Bolton. Since then there's been more, most notably scrapping JCPOA without a clear strategy to peacefully prevent Iran from restarting its nuclear program.https://arcdigital.media/donald-trump-is-going-to-bomb-iran-5f29632fb25d …
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I also predicted that Trump would try to take the North Korea issue off the table and pivot towards confronting Iran. While there are multiple possible explanations for POTUS declaring victory on North Korea despite obviously not achieving anything, my Iran theory is one of them.
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Trump ordering an on attack Iran is far from a sure thing. But there are enough signs that we should take the possibility seriously. The US should confront Iran, but war would not be a smart strategy. Then again, a smart strategy wouldn't have scrapped the nuclear deal. (END)
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PS: American officials warning of Iranian cyber capabilities two days ago is another sign the admin's lining up for war with Iran. We should counter it, but Iran's far from the biggest cyber threat. China is. Still, Iran's the one they chose to highlight.https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/iran-has-laid-groundwork-extensive-cyberattacks-u-s-say-officials-n893081 …
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Replying to @NGrossman81
The Iran context is different, but worth recalling: hours after Trump said he'd hit North Korea with "fire and fury" if Kim issued any more threats, Kim issued a threat to attack Guam. Trump did nothing, then a while later started calling him a funny guy with a great personality.
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I wrote at the time that it was a bluff. But that's mostly due to the strategic circumstances. North Korea has nukes. Iran doesn't. And while all of North Korea's neighbors strongly oppose a US attack, the same can't be said of Iran's.
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