If you're asking who will win the next election, as @NateSilver538 is, then overall presidential approval is probably more important.
But if you're asking how the current government will act, then presidential approval among Republicans matters more.
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However the picture is incomplete if it doesn’t also show the change in the percentage of people who identify as Republican. W Bush’s second term was notable for the number of Republicans that switched to Independent, which presaged Democrat wins in 2006 and 2008.
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That's important, though it also applies more to predicting who will win future elections than understanding (or predicting) what the current government will do.
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Agreed. For the majority of Republicans, their mindset is that the primary matters more than the general. As long as that holds, your analysis is on point regarding present behavior.
End of conversation
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