You offer a best case, plausible outcome. Problem is that unlike most issues, Trump actually cares about trade. It's not even about pleasing his base, he really thinks he's got the answers.
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I think you're right that he cares about trade and thinks the trade war strategy is a good idea on the merits. At the very least, it's a position he's consistently advocated since long before he ran for president.
End of conversation
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Kim-Win.
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