Unpopular opinion: this is true as long as you live in one of about 8 swing states. Otherwise, as long as people keep showing up to vote because they *think* their vote counts, votes in 40-42 states just don't matter.
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For president, in some states, in the general election you're probably right. But a lot of offices matter.
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Was about to add that this is only true for presidential elections. All other elections I'm with you.
End of conversation
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