Assume Trump's acting strategically, based on national interest (no personal element). His admin thought it through, and is denigrating allies as a negotiation tactic. Still really dumb. Even if it works, likely outcome is net negative. At best, small gain. At worst, disaster.
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Replying to @NGrossman81
I think even this is too kind. The small gain would have to be pegged to a very specific time horizon. This will not provide any benefit.
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Replying to @garbageplate
My point is even with the most generous assumptions possible, it's still a bad idea.
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Replying to @NGrossman81
I'm just trying to work out the possible outcomes and I don't see the upsides. I just see American influence crumbling. We are close to the same thought process here, I'm just less optimistic believe it or not.
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Replying to @garbageplate
I'm pretty pessimistic about all this too. That being said, I think it's valuable to evaluate decisions under generous assumptions. If the result is still pretty bad, then the decisions probably not a good idea.
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Replying to @NGrossman81
I agree with your method that's why I was stipulating to your in good faith decision making assumption. I was almost hoping that you or someone could get me thinking there could be a positive. Got anything or is this handbasket headed where I thought?
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I have nothing to positive to say about deliberately straining the western alliance.
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