File this under another easy prediction I got right but wish I didn't.https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1003995117160681473 …
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Iran Nuke Prediction 1) US breaks Iran Deal 2) World blames US 3) China, Russia, EU won't reimpose sanctions 4) US lacks leverage, gets no new concessions 5) Iran restarts nuclear program 6) Trump faces pressure--from KSA, UAE, Israel, Republicans--to bomb 1-5 have now happened
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Replying to @NGrossman81
And/or Israel simply handles #6 by itself. Trump “approves” the bombing without the U.S. appearing to be directly involved. Israel will get beaten up at the UN, but (of course) Trump will have their back.
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Replying to @kenkrown
It would be nearly impossible for the US not to get sucked into a Israel-Iran war. And Israel on its own couldn't do much lasting damage to the Iranian nuclear program (without dropping nukes on Iran).
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Replying to @NGrossman81
I was thinking more of limited strikes, but you feel that’s not likely to do much damage. As you stated in your article, Iran is not Syria. What a mess.
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Right. Iran learned from Iraq, where Israel bombed a nuclear reactor in 1981. They've dispersed the program, put facilities in hard to bomb locations--e.g. inside a mountain near Qom--and added redundancy. Israel lacks the firepower (conventional at least) to destroy all that.
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