File this under another easy prediction I got right but wish I didn't.https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1003995117160681473 …
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Easy to predict world would blame Trump, not Iran, and Iran would restart its nuclear program. However, those cheering the Iran Deal's end insisted US, despite lacking leverage, would get Iran to capitulate. That is, if they thought about the future at allhttps://arcdigital.media/iran-deal-opponents-keep-making-these-four-bad-arguments-b926bf9135a8 …
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The right's unified spin is that this news confirms that Iran was cheating on deal. Blame Obama. If the U.S. wants war, they will get it, doesn't matter what other parties do. I thought war was unlikely, but perhaps it is only option for Trump to influence events, claim "win."
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That spin could only come from people who didn't understand the JCPOA. Two most likely outcomes: Iran reaches nuclear breakout or the US attacks. Chances of a third possibility (a new deal? Iran voluntarily maintaining all restrictions?) appear unlikely.
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95% of well informed people don't understand JCPOA, not even at big picture level. I am physics guy who tries to decipher how this shit works and it is confusing. I thought 3rd possibility was EU/RU/China offer economic incentives to keep old deal humming.
End of conversation
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