File this under another easy prediction I got right but wish I didn't.https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1003995117160681473 …
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Here's my most recent article laying out that prediction (how withdrawing from the Iran deal could lead to war)https://arcdigital.media/donald-trump-is-going-to-bomb-iran-5f29632fb25d …
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Easy to predict world would blame Trump, not Iran, and Iran would restart its nuclear program. However, those cheering the Iran Deal's end insisted US, despite lacking leverage, would get Iran to capitulate. That is, if they thought about the future at allhttps://arcdigital.media/iran-deal-opponents-keep-making-these-four-bad-arguments-b926bf9135a8 …
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And/or Israel simply handles #6 by itself. Trump “approves” the bombing without the U.S. appearing to be directly involved. Israel will get beaten up at the UN, but (of course) Trump will have their back.
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It would be nearly impossible for the US not to get sucked into a Israel-Iran war. And Israel on its own couldn't do much lasting damage to the Iranian nuclear program (without dropping nukes on Iran).
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I was thinking more of limited strikes, but you feel that’s not likely to do much damage. As you stated in your article, Iran is not Syria. What a mess.
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Right. Iran learned from Iraq, where Israel bombed a nuclear reactor in 1981. They've dispersed the program, put facilities in hard to bomb locations--e.g. inside a mountain near Qom--and added redundancy. Israel lacks the firepower (conventional at least) to destroy all that.
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The JCPOA focused entirely on nuclear. Ballistic missiles weren't a part of it.
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You're confusing two separate things. The UN Security Council has passed resolutions instructing Iran not to test ballistic missiles, making those test launches illegal. But that's not included in the JCPOA (Iran deal).
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Exactly what Bibi and Bolton wanted from the beginning.
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The plan all along has been for war with Iran. No surprise.
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