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MustStopMurad's profile
Murad Mahmudov 🚀
Murad Mahmudov 🚀
Murad Mahmudov  🚀
@MustStopMurad

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Murad Mahmudov  🚀

@MustStopMurad

Cryptocurrency Analyst. Bitcoin, not Blockchain. Angel Investor. Previously @Princeton.

New York, NY
Joined March 2017

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    1. Spooky Public Key Info (SPKI)‏ @bascule Apr 29
      Replying to @QWQiao

      Always cracks me up when Bitcoiners consider themselves Austrians when they’re really ancaps. Other favorite Hayek misconception: “he was a huge proponent of deflation!” Never mind Hayek’s constant focus on equilibrium...

      2 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
    2. Spooky Public Key Info (SPKI)‏ @bascule Apr 29
      Replying to @bascule

      Spooky Public Key Info (SPKI) Retweeted Spooky Public Key Info (SPKI)

      @QWQiao your post sent me down the path of looking into Hayek's views on deflation again and I found this choice quote:https://twitter.com/bascule/status/990691490069467137 …

      Spooky Public Key Info (SPKI) added,

      Spooky Public Key Info (SPKI) @bascule
      Bitcoiners take notice: deflation doesn't work http://www.aei.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/Conversation01.pdf … pic.twitter.com/IqTw1ZnUPe
      1 reply 1 retweet 3 likes
    3. Qiao Wang‏ @QWQiao Apr 29
      Replying to @bascule

      Interesting. Did you read that document? It's important to know the context in which he said that to understand why he said that.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    4. Mathias Grønnebæk‏ @MatGroennebaek Apr 29
      Replying to @QWQiao @bascule

      Depends very much on when the quote is from. Eg. in the early 1930s he was actually in favour of deflation (in the UK), because of the prevailing wage, and price rigidity which he saw as a far greater evil - as it was the major cause of unemployment at the time.

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
    5. Mathias Grønnebæk‏ @MatGroennebaek Apr 29
      Replying to @MatGroennebaek @QWQiao @bascule

      There isn't a default opinion to be had for/against inflation/deflation when you talk Hayek, it all depends on context. He did argue against static inflation such as Keynes was for, and is the prevailing monetary policy of central banks today though.

      2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
    6. Qiao Wang‏ @QWQiao Apr 29
      Replying to @MatGroennebaek @bascule

      Right. He definitely argued against deliberate inflationary monetary policy. Do you think he overall favors ethical monetary control or a free market approach?

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    7. Spooky Public Key Info (SPKI)‏ @bascule Apr 29
      Replying to @QWQiao @MatGroennebaek

      He favors extremely limited intervention to restore equilibrium in extremely out-of-kilter situiations, but otherwise he obviously favors a bottom-up, free market approach. That’s very different from deflation as a first principle ala Bitcoin.

      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
    8. Mathias Grønnebæk‏ @MatGroennebaek Apr 29
      Replying to @bascule @QWQiao

      Hayek definitely considered static deflation as bad as static inflation. The intervention he argues for is actually very similar to what Bagehot argues for in Lombard Street. NGDP targeting monetary policy - inflation during decreasing output, deflation during increasing output.

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    9. Murad Mahmudov  🚀‏ @MustStopMurad Apr 29
      Replying to @MatGroennebaek @bascule @QWQiao

      https://m.youtube.com/watch?t=1235s&v=vbNMYfqTCkA … Don’t know if you guys seen this presentation by Jihan Wu yet. He thinks the future are Private Central Banks issuing stablecoins which will compete against one another and entire governments will outsource monetary-policy-as-a-service.

      1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
    10. Mathias Grønnebæk‏ @MatGroennebaek Apr 29
      Replying to @MustStopMurad @bascule @QWQiao

      I think it is possible, but probably pretty unlikely. The more likely outcome is a mixed currency economy, where you still have a single accounting currency for taxation purposes, which probably will remain the government's fiat currency, but people transact in many currencies.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      Murad Mahmudov  🚀‏ @MustStopMurad Apr 29
      Replying to @MatGroennebaek @bascule @QWQiao

      Don’t you think that 100s of currencies is no different to barter, the very thing that money wa supposed to eliminate? They exist today because of borders and add friction UX. I believe future are 1-5 big winners. What do you think?

      3:24 PM - 29 Apr 2018
      • 1 Like
      • Stephan Livera
      3 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        1. New conversation
        2. Qiao Wang‏ @QWQiao Apr 29
          Replying to @MustStopMurad @MatGroennebaek @bascule

          I actually think we’ll go move back towards barter with tokenized assets. Might write a blog post on this. :)

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        3. Murad Mahmudov  🚀‏ @MustStopMurad Apr 29
          Replying to @QWQiao @MatGroennebaek @bascule

          I think SoV component of Money will decrease from $80T to $30-40T due to hyperliquidity of everything but it will not go away, and while it will slowly dissapear, it will take a long time. Money needs to be lowest risk, most liquid good and interest rates are inevitably dropping

          1 reply 1 retweet 1 like
        4. Mathias Grønnebæk‏ @MatGroennebaek Apr 29
          Replying to @MustStopMurad @QWQiao @bascule

          Interest rates can't get lower than 0 though, and most western economies are at or close to 0. China even is at 1.5% AFAIK.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        5. Murad Mahmudov  🚀‏ @MustStopMurad Apr 29
          Replying to @MatGroennebaek @QWQiao @bascule

          Exactly, my point is, money should be lower risk than any bond

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        6. Mathias Grønnebæk‏ @MatGroennebaek Apr 29
          Replying to @MustStopMurad @QWQiao @bascule

          It will be an interesting next 10-25 years, this topic has far too many possible outcomes for me to say anything about though :D

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        7. Murad Mahmudov  🚀‏ @MustStopMurad Apr 29
          Replying to @MatGroennebaek @QWQiao @bascule

          Some months ago I stumbled by a tweet comment storm of yours where you describe how Blockchains will often destroy revenues, not enable them, due to eradicating middlemen and value transferring to P2P participants themselves. Been quoting it to many people since

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        8. Mathias Grønnebæk‏ @MatGroennebaek Apr 29
          Replying to @MustStopMurad @QWQiao @bascule

          That is a general feature of entrepreneurship/innovation, idea came from reading Schumpeter, you might enjoy reading some of his work. He coined the term creative destruction.

          2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        9. Murad Mahmudov  🚀‏ @MustStopMurad Apr 29
          Replying to @MatGroennebaek @QWQiao @bascule

          Yes I am familiar. Blockchains (pardon me) like Electricity and the Internet really taking it to the next level.

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        10. End of conversation
        1. New conversation
        2. Mathias Grønnebæk‏ @MatGroennebaek Apr 29
          Replying to @MustStopMurad @bascule @QWQiao

          I actually think the more efficient markets get, the more they start to resemble barter economies. The idea that barter is the lowest evolution of an economy I think is just historically wrong, almost in all societies, even going back to Bronze age, there was credit based money.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Murad Mahmudov  🚀‏ @MustStopMurad Apr 29
          Replying to @MatGroennebaek @bascule @QWQiao

          Yup but that might be decades away. What about 10 years from today? Surely some cryptocurrencies will become multi-trillion dollar money-like commodities

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. Mathias Grønnebæk‏ @MatGroennebaek Apr 29
          Replying to @MustStopMurad @bascule @QWQiao

          Depends on what you mean with cryptocurrencies. I don't think BTC or ETH will be adopted as money broadly tbh, but I could be wrong. If you mean tokens more broadly speaking, then absolutely.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        5. Murad Mahmudov  🚀‏ @MustStopMurad Apr 29
          Replying to @MatGroennebaek @bascule @QWQiao

          I think BTC could be a big 5T+ Neo-Gold-like SoV. The strict Fixed-supply, however is unprecedented. I’m trying to wrap my head around if it could become a good MoE/UoA at huge size, hard to say if pp-volatility would be low enough to allow good UX as MoE/UoA. Thoughts?

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        6. Mathias Grønnebæk‏ @MatGroennebaek Apr 29
          Replying to @MustStopMurad @bascule @QWQiao

          I think the reality at the moment is that most economies are so skewed pricing wise that gold, and other traditional SoV's have basically been made irrelevant. Volatility is simply too high.

          2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        7. Murad Mahmudov  🚀‏ @MustStopMurad Apr 29
          Replying to @MatGroennebaek @bascule @QWQiao

          do you have a view whether a fixed-supply currency like Bitcoin could be used as MoE/UoA? Some say the eventual deflation is fine, others say its unworkable...

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        8. Mathias Grønnebæk‏ @MatGroennebaek Apr 29
          Replying to @MustStopMurad @bascule @QWQiao

          Would first have to assume that the predominant currencies are no longer volatile against Bitcoin, eg. if we get a stable coin like the Solid Hayek described, or if Bitcoin itself is the predominant accounting currency. And this is very unlikely given you pay tax in fiat.

          2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        9. Murad Mahmudov  🚀‏ @MustStopMurad Apr 29
          Replying to @MatGroennebaek @bascule @QWQiao

          1) But what if State’s accept Bitcoin for tax? Wyoming already does etc. 2) If Bitcoin is used for accounting, do you think that enables lower volatility enough to be a good MoE/UoA?

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        10. 12 more replies
        1. Murad Mahmudov  🚀‏ @MustStopMurad Apr 29
          Replying to @MustStopMurad @MatGroennebaek and

          If no one wants fiat anymore and it’s only used as a tax appcoin, it will be worthless or be worth very little due to high velocity. The SoV component of Money exists purely in our minds. There can only be so many Schelling Points for Neo-Gold etc.

          0 replies 1 retweet 1 like
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