Always cracks me up when Bitcoiners consider themselves Austrians when they’re really ancaps. Other favorite Hayek misconception: “he was a huge proponent of deflation!” Never mind Hayek’s constant focus on equilibrium...
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I actually think we’ll go move back towards barter with tokenized assets. Might write a blog post on this. :)
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I think SoV component of Money will decrease from $80T to $30-40T due to hyperliquidity of everything but it will not go away, and while it will slowly dissapear, it will take a long time. Money needs to be lowest risk, most liquid good and interest rates are inevitably dropping
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Interest rates can't get lower than 0 though, and most western economies are at or close to 0. China even is at 1.5% AFAIK.
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Exactly, my point is, money should be lower risk than any bond
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It will be an interesting next 10-25 years, this topic has far too many possible outcomes for me to say anything about though :D
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Some months ago I stumbled by a tweet comment storm of yours where you describe how Blockchains will often destroy revenues, not enable them, due to eradicating middlemen and value transferring to P2P participants themselves. Been quoting it to many people since
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That is a general feature of entrepreneurship/innovation, idea came from reading Schumpeter, you might enjoy reading some of his work. He coined the term creative destruction.
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Yes I am familiar. Blockchains (pardon me) like Electricity and the Internet really taking it to the next level.
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I actually think the more efficient markets get, the more they start to resemble barter economies. The idea that barter is the lowest evolution of an economy I think is just historically wrong, almost in all societies, even going back to Bronze age, there was credit based money.
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Yup but that might be decades away. What about 10 years from today? Surely some cryptocurrencies will become multi-trillion dollar money-like commodities
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Depends on what you mean with cryptocurrencies. I don't think BTC or ETH will be adopted as money broadly tbh, but I could be wrong. If you mean tokens more broadly speaking, then absolutely.
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I think BTC could be a big 5T+ Neo-Gold-like SoV. The strict Fixed-supply, however is unprecedented. I’m trying to wrap my head around if it could become a good MoE/UoA at huge size, hard to say if pp-volatility would be low enough to allow good UX as MoE/UoA. Thoughts?
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I think the reality at the moment is that most economies are so skewed pricing wise that gold, and other traditional SoV's have basically been made irrelevant. Volatility is simply too high.
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do you have a view whether a fixed-supply currency like Bitcoin could be used as MoE/UoA? Some say the eventual deflation is fine, others say its unworkable...
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Would first have to assume that the predominant currencies are no longer volatile against Bitcoin, eg. if we get a stable coin like the Solid Hayek described, or if Bitcoin itself is the predominant accounting currency. And this is very unlikely given you pay tax in fiat.
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1) But what if State’s accept Bitcoin for tax? Wyoming already does etc. 2) If Bitcoin is used for accounting, do you think that enables lower volatility enough to be a good MoE/UoA?
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If no one wants fiat anymore and it’s only used as a tax appcoin, it will be worthless or be worth very little due to high velocity. The SoV component of Money exists purely in our minds. There can only be so many Schelling Points for Neo-Gold etc.
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