The point I’m making is that blockchain tech reduces the TAM of money due to hyper liquidity. The obvious next question is how powerful is this effect. If it is too powerful, it may not matter whether BTC or stable coins or utility coins like ETH win the money use-case.
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Replying to @TusharJain_
Intuitively, it feels that even if your “hyperliquidity of everything” thesis comes to pass, it will be after one of the Neo-Money’s touches $20T+. And then it can deflate afterwards as it flows to securities. The UX of your vision feels clunky. Much of the world is illiterate
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Replying to @MustStopMurad @TusharJain_
Hyperliquidity of productive securities will slowly reduce TAM of Money from $100-130T down to $30-60T.... But doesn’t this inflate the value of securities? Like Central Banks buying so many of them with easy money today?
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Replying to @MustStopMurad @TusharJain_
Securities are fundamentally volatile/risky. Money needs to be {-3% to +3%} stable year to year. In the Austrian school, money is lowest-risk asset for capital accumulation.
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Replying to @MustStopMurad @TusharJain_
Demand for this is big. Anxiety reducer. Better sleep. Many people live paycheck to paycheck and if not, just have $5000 in cash or something. I think Money will remain quite big
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Replying to @MustStopMurad @TusharJain_
Money is “energy”. Money as SoV is “excess energy” being put into a box to transfer into MoE in the future. Even the broad Stock market can drop 5% in a day but USD doesn’t. BTC post-hyperbitcoinization or a Stablecoin eventually being enormous are the top 2 contenders imho.
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Replying to @MustStopMurad @TusharJain_
I predict the market will demand “Simple Money” for decades to come. Either BTC or a Stablecoin are destined to be enormous. Doubt it’s ETH. Programmability is overrated, Security/Immutability underrated. I think smart contracts should be L2 on top of money.
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Programmability may be over rated but as
@KyleSamani has argued overall utility maybe underrated. The market may heavily favor coin that is quick, easy, cheap to use - not necessarily "most sound". The coin that scales and provides best ux wins. The frontrunner here is Eth imo.4 replies 0 retweets 1 like -
Replying to @jordanmmck @MustStopMurad and
Whatever becomes a future money will undergo large scale attacks from governments who stand to lose power. Some level of base utility matters but most important is resiliency to attacks.
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Replying to @PhilJBonello @jordanmmck and
Think that's a valid concern. But I see governments rather integrating with crypto instead of actually attacking it. Governments can gain a lot from this.
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Governments will lose A LOT more than they gain as an institution. Taxation, inflation seigneorage, lenders of last resort, high budgets would all become harder or impossible if cryptocurrency takes over.
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Replying to @MustStopMurad @PhilJBonello and
Hmmm. Maybe I haven't thought about this long enough.
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Replying to @MustStopMurad @hodlalpha and
Yeah I think it's naive to assume every government around the world will rationally decide to work *with* crypto than against. There's a lot to lose.
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