0/ Blockchain will first redefine what assets are considered money. Then it will actually reduce the total demand for money. Yes, blockchain will actually mean we need less money in the economy. Time for a thread.
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It is possible that the tokenization and hyper liquidity of everything comes more quickly than we realize. But I agree that probabilistically neo-money is more likely to grow to $10T+ first.
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We won't need money as a MoE either. Blockchain protocols will be the MoE, and that doesn't necessarily need money. It just needs the validators / security elements to be paid for. The UoA has to be a universal constant. A basket of stable assets may become the "norm" for a UoA.
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Hyperliquidity of productive securities will slowly reduce TAM of Money from $100-130T down to $30-60T.... But doesn’t this inflate the value of securities? Like Central Banks buying so many of them with easy money today?
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Securities are fundamentally volatile/risky. Money needs to be {-3% to +3%} stable year to year. In the Austrian school, money is lowest-risk asset for capital accumulation.
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Demand for this is big. Anxiety reducer. Better sleep. Many people live paycheck to paycheck and if not, just have $5000 in cash or something. I think Money will remain quite big

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Money is “energy”. Money as SoV is “excess energy” being put into a box to transfer into MoE in the future. Even the broad Stock market can drop 5% in a day but USD doesn’t. BTC post-hyperbitcoinization or a Stablecoin eventually being enormous are the top 2 contenders imho.
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I predict the market will demand “Simple Money” for decades to come. Either BTC or a Stablecoin are destined to be enormous. Doubt it’s ETH. Programmability is overrated, Security/Immutability underrated. I think smart contracts should be L2 on top of money.

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Programmability may be over rated but as
@KyleSamani has argued overall utility maybe underrated. The market may heavily favor coin that is quick, easy, cheap to use - not necessarily "most sound". The coin that scales and provides best ux wins. The frontrunner here is Eth imo. -
That’s one scenario for sure. Problem is, value accrues to the coin most hodled, not the coin most used. 1) In the world u describe, why not hold 90% of your wealth in a gold brick (BTC) and 10% in cool easy utility fuel? (ETH) 2) Is ~2% inflation worth the perks vs. deflationary
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(last reply should have been in this thread). Also I know your example is hypothetical, but I don't think people would hold 90% SoV, 10% MoE simply because it's too complex. When it comes to billions of people I think simplicity and UX will trump almost everything else.
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