10 years 20 years ago is 1 year now. Everything is accelerating.Bitcoin 2018 is a completely different beast in every way than Bitcoin 2015. To think that length of last bear market is and indicator for this one, is folly. The bull is knocking on the door. Q4 will be glorious. 
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Point 2 is a valid argument. Thing is extrapolating past cycles doesn't account for difference in fringe movement of retail buyers compared to massive influx of institutional money.
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Institutions aren’t buying yet. Its still too crazy for them / no one wants career risk / custody risk, regs risk. The bolder among the institutions Institutions would rather buy below 5K imho, let this bear play out, let the weak get shaken out.
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My initial argument was that things are moving faster. In every facet of the world, and in Bitcoin even more so. Every narrative plays out faster. Bullshit is being called out faster. Wokeness is increasing exponentially. I don't see room for this bear to 'play out' any longer.
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It takes some time for the wokeness to “ripple” through society (no pun intended).
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I like the chart in theory but I agree with hodlnaut. Network effect is exponential & sentiment can easily flip at the drop of a hat, for many reasons. Too many people already thinking 100K, the path of least resistance will be up long before 2023
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it's actually not exponential but logarithmic. each subsequent 10x takes more time to achieve.
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I think it's rather parabolic, because the Y-axis is itself logarithmic :). This conversation is super interesting. I side with you Murad on this one, I see Bitcoin permeating society in a "rampant" way with each new cycle likely longer than the previous.
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Society is decades away from adopting Bitcoin as real money. And Bitcoin itself and its ecosystem are decades away from becoming mature and ready for society. We need to be patient and think long-term :)
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The fundamentals are “in the chart”. I am a hardcore Bitcoin maximalist just like you are, but we need to realize most people don’t see it so religiously like we do.
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This has nothing to do with me being a maximalist. I'm not even that hardcore, I have several shitcoin bags. I just think it is very misguided to think a variable from 3 years back has any bearing at all now.
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what variable? I meant the price is also much much higher than 3 yrs aho, so the logic evens out. I mean the price is still much higher than 3 yrs ago; I expect bull in Q4 2019, not Q4 2018
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Price and length of last bear. I will happily admit I was wrong if bull doesn't come until Q4 2019, but I can't see it in my most bearish fantasies.
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